Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Fair Value 2026

YUMC · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) trades at $40.62, versus a $53.14 median fair value across its 11 active models — 30.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.65.

Key Facts

Ticker
YUMC
Price
$40.62
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +188.4% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $53.14, 30.8% above the current price of $40.62. Estimates range from $22.42 to $161.68. YUMC scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. YUMC’s +30.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -11.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Yum China Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give YUMC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.65 -4.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.88 -19.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $53.14 +30.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $117.14 +188.4%
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What Is YUMC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $22.42 to $161.68

CirclFi's 11 active models place Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) between $22.42 and $161.68 per share, a spread of 262% of the median. The median of that range — $53.14 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for YUMC, against a current price of $40.62.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$22.42median $53.14$161.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$22.42
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$161.68
Model agreement7 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for YUMC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on YUMC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Yum China Holdings, Inc. at $40.62. With an estimated intrinsic value of $53.14 and 7 of 11 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +30.8%. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $161.68 (+298.0%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $22.42 (-44.8%). This +342.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About YUMC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for YUMC. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for YUMC is $53.14 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.65 on its own, implying -4.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does YUMC Rank in Restaurants?

Among 56 Restaurants stocks, YUMC ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places YUMC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

The Restaurants sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Yum China Holdings, Inc., metrics like store traffic trends provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is YUMC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns YUMC a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Yum China Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Yum China Holdings, Inc. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +342.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every YUMC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across YUMC's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Yum China Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

YUMYum! Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.1DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.QOC 8.2WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.3SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8PTLOPortillo's Inc.QOC 7.1VSTDVestand Inc.QOC 5.4CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: YUM · DRI · DPZ · WEN · BJRI · SHAK · PTLO · VSTD · CMG · EAT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to YUMC?

7 companies across all industries closest to YUMC’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

BVSBioventus Inc.QOC 8.2CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2MFAMFA Financial, Inc.QOC 8.2ETDEthan Allen Interiors Inc.QOC 8.2ARIApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.QOC 8.2AIRAAR Corp.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BVS · CUBI · MFA · ETD · ARI · AIR · NVDA

Where Does YUMC Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

YUMC is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Yum China Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC)'s intrinsic value at $53.14 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $22.42 to $161.68. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.65 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is YUMC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.62, 7 of 11 active models suggest YUMC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $53.14, 30.8% above the current price of $40.62 — a consensus view that YUMC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for YUMC?

Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on YUMC?

CirclFi analyzes YUMC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on YUMC?

Of the 11 models currently active on YUMC, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $161.68 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $22.42. CirclFi's published fair value for YUMC is the median of that range, $53.14, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 262% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is YUMC a value trap in 2026?

Yum China Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) has a median fair value of $53.14 — 30.8% above the current price of $40.62 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/YUMC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this YUMC valuation
  • Financial statements: Yum China Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001673358) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for YUMC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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