Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) Fair Value 2026

KROS · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) trades at $11.23, versus a $22.17 median fair value across its 8 active models — 97.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KROS
Price
$11.23
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: EROIC Spread suggests +420.5% upside with 41% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $22.17, 97.4% above the current price of $11.23. Estimates range from $3.20 to $58.45. KROS scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. KROS’s +97.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Keros Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KROS?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $44.56 +296.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $37.39 +232.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.63 -40.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $58.45 +420.5%
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What Is KROS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.20 to $58.45

CirclFi's 8 active models place Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) between $3.20 and $58.45 per share, a spread of 249% of the median. The median of that range — $22.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KROS, against a current price of $11.23.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · EROIC
$3.20median $22.17$58.45
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.20
Most bullish modelEROIC Spread$58.45
Model agreement6 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KROS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KROS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $22.17. At a current market price of $11.23, 6 of 8 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +97.4%. Notably, EROIC sees the most upside at +420.5% (fair value: $58.45), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -71.5% ($3.20). The spread between these extremes — +491.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About KROS?

8 of 13 models are currently active for KROS. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KROS is $22.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KROS Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, KROS ranks #26 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places KROS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a life sciences company, Keros Therapeutics, Inc. operates in a sector where cash runway (months) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating KROS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is KROS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KROS a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Keros Therapeutics, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +491.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KROS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KROS's 8 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Keros Therapeutics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

TBPHTheravance Biopharma, Inc.QOC 8.2TGTXTG Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.1MNKDMannKind CorporationQOC 8.3VXRTVaxart, Inc.QOC 8.1ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 8.3RPRXRoyalty Pharma plcQOC 8.1GOVXGeoVax Labs, Inc.QOC 5.7CGEMCullinan Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.9CLDICalidi Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.3EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: TBPH · TGTX · MNKD · VXRT · ACAD · RPRX · GOVX · CGEM · CLDI · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KROS?

7 companies across all industries closest to KROS’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2BPOPPopular, Inc.QOC 8.2EPREPR PropertiesQOC 8.2EDConsolidated Edison, Inc.QOC 8.2PRKPark National CorporationQOC 8.2MBWMMercantile Bank CorporationQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: YUMC · BPOP · EPR · ED · PRK · MBWM · NVDA

Where Does KROS Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

KROS is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Keros Therapeutics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS)'s intrinsic value at $22.17 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.20 to $58.45. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KROS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.23, 6 of 8 active models suggest KROS may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $22.17, 97.4% above the current price of $11.23 — a consensus view that KROS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for KROS?

Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KROS?

CirclFi analyzes KROS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KROS?

Of the 8 models currently active on KROS, EROIC Spread is the most bullish at $58.45 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.20. CirclFi's published fair value for KROS is the median of that range, $22.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 249% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KROS a value trap in 2026?

Keros Therapeutics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Keros Therapeutics, Inc. (KROS) has a median fair value of $22.17 — 97.4% above the current price of $11.23 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KROS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KROS valuation
  • Financial statements: Keros Therapeutics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001664710) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KROS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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