Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Fair Value 2026

DRI · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) trades at $203.14, versus a $167.12 median fair value across its 11 active models — 17.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $135.44.

Key Facts

Ticker
DRI
Price
$203.14
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +112.4% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $167.12, 17.7% below the current price of $203.14. Estimates range from $62.52 to $431.40. DRI scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. DRI’s -17.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -11.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Darden Restaurants, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DRI?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($203.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $135.44 -33.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $91.98 -54.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $167.02 -17.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $431.40 +112.4%
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What Is DRI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $62.52 to $431.40

CirclFi's 11 active models place Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) between $62.52 and $431.40 per share, a spread of 221% of the median. The median of that range — $167.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DRI, against a current price of $203.14.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$62.52median $167.12$431.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$62.52
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$431.40
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DRI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DRI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Darden Restaurants, Inc. at its current price of $203.14. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $167.12 (-17.7% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +112.4% (fair value: $431.40), while EROIC is the most conservative at -69.2% ($62.52). The spread between these extremes — +181.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DRI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for DRI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DRI is $167.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $135.44 on its own, implying -33.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DRI Rank in Restaurants?

Among 56 Restaurants stocks, DRI ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places DRI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

Within the Restaurants space, Darden Restaurants, Inc. competes in an environment where e-commerce penetration rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is DRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DRI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Darden Restaurants, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +181.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DRI's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Darden Restaurants, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1YUMYum! Brands, Inc.QOC 8.2SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.QOC 8.2RICKRCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd.QOC 7.1BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.QOC 5.3TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.QOC 9.1EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: YUMC · WEN · YUM · SHAK · DPZ · RICK · HDL · BRCB · TXRH · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DRI?

6 companies across all industries closest to DRI’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

CCSIConsensus Cloud Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.1LYTSLSI Industries Inc.QOC 8.1PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.1TAT&T Inc.QOC 8.1PRSUPursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CCSI · LYTS · PAG · T · PRSU · NVDA

Where Does DRI Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

DRI is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Darden Restaurants, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)'s intrinsic value at $167.12 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $62.52 to $431.40. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $135.44 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $203.14, 2 of 11 active models suggest DRI may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $167.12, 17.7% below the current price of $203.14 — a consensus view that DRI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for DRI?

Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DRI?

CirclFi analyzes DRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DRI?

Of the 11 models currently active on DRI, First Chicago is the most bullish at $431.40 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $62.52. CirclFi's published fair value for DRI is the median of that range, $167.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 221% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DRI a value trap in 2026?

Darden Restaurants, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) has a median fair value of $167.12 — 17.7% below the current price of $203.14 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DRI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DRI valuation
  • Financial statements: Darden Restaurants, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000940944) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DRI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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