Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) Fair Value 2026

KSPI · Services-Business Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) trades at $89.41, approximately 66% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $54.01. QOC: 2.4/10. 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
KSPI
Price
$89.41
Quality Score
2.4/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +47.6% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.4/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $89.51, essentially in line with the current price of $89.41. Estimates range from $28.22 to $222.40. KSPI scores 2.4/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($89.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $54.01 -39.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $33.26 -62.8%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $131.97 +47.6%
EROIC Spread
Medium Conviction
 $28.22 -68.4%

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What Is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $89.41. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $106.93 (+19.6% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $222.40 (+148.7%), versus EROIC at $28.22 (-68.4%). This +217.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About KSPI?

8 of 13 models are currently active for KSPI. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates KSPI's intrinsic value at $54.01, implying -39.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KSPI Rank in Services-Business Services, NEC?

Among 94 Services-Business Services, NEC stocks, KSPI ranks #90 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.4 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks →

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KSPI a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for KSPI. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - . Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - is rated at 2.4/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +217.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KSPI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KSPI's 8 active models, average confidence is 11%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Business Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Business Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

CARTMaplebear Inc.QOC 10.0EXLSExlService Holdings, Inc.QOC 10.0FICOFair Isaac CorporationQOC 10.0PDDPDD Holdings Inc.QOC 10.0TCOMTrip.com Group LimitedQOC 10.0LQDTLiquidity Services, Inc.QOC 9.7VVisa Inc.QOC 9.6HQYHealthEquity, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: CART · EXLS · FICO · PDD · TCOM

See all Services-Business Services, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz -

What is Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - 's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $54.01. The Quality of Company score is 2.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KSPI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $89.41, 4 of 8 active models suggest KSPI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $89.51, essentially in line with the current price of $89.41 — a consensus view that KSPI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - 's business model in Services-Business Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.4 mean for KSPI?

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - 's QOC of 2.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KSPI?

CirclFi analyzes KSPI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is KSPI a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for KSPI at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - (KSPI) has a median fair value of $89.51 — essentially in line with the current price of $89.41 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KSPI/ · Methodology

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