Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Fair Value 2026

TXRH · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) trades at $163.57, versus a $116.39 median fair value across its 11 active models — 28.8% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $69.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXRH
Price
$163.57
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +49.4% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $116.39, 28.8% below the current price of $163.57. Estimates range from $45.84 to $244.32. TXRH scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TXRH’s -28.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -11.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Texas Roadhouse, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TXRH?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($163.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $69.24 -57.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $67.78 -58.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $116.39 -28.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $244.32 +49.4%
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What Is TXRH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $45.84 to $244.32

CirclFi's 11 active models place Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) between $45.84 and $244.32 per share, a spread of 171% of the median. The median of that range — $116.39 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TXRH, against a current price of $163.57.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$45.84median $116.39$244.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$45.84
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$244.32
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TXRH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TXRH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $116.39. Trading at $163.57, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.8%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $244.32 (+49.4%), versus EROIC at $45.84 (-72.0%). This +121.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TXRH?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TXRH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TXRH is $116.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $69.24 on its own, implying -57.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXRH Rank in Restaurants?

Among 56 Restaurants stocks, TXRH ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places TXRH in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

The Restaurants sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer-facing company businesses. For Texas Roadhouse, Inc., metrics like gross margin expansion provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is TXRH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TXRH a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Texas Roadhouse, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. scores 9.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXRH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXRH's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Texas Roadhouse, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2WINGWingstop Inc.QOC 8.9EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3BDLFlanigan's Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.8CHSNChanson International HoldingQOC 1.9BROSDutch Bros Inc.QOC 8.7DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.1HDLSuper Hi International Holding Ltd.QOC 7.1BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.QOC 5.3

Read investment analysis: CMG · WING · EAT · BDL · CHSN · BROS · DRI · HDL · BRCB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TXRH?

7 companies across all industries closest to TXRH’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

GLWCorning IncorporatedQOC 9.1ACIWACI Worldwide, Inc.QOC 9.1TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCQOC 9.1CMRECostamare Inc.QOC 9.1MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GLW · ACIW · TPL · CCEP · CMRE · MSI · NVDA

Where Does TXRH Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

TXRH is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Texas Roadhouse, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)'s intrinsic value at $116.39 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $45.84 to $244.32. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $69.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXRH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $163.57, 3 of 11 active models suggest TXRH may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $116.39, 28.8% below the current price of $163.57 — a consensus view that TXRH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for TXRH?

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXRH?

CirclFi analyzes TXRH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TXRH?

Of the 11 models currently active on TXRH, First Chicago is the most bullish at $244.32 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $45.84. CirclFi's published fair value for TXRH is the median of that range, $116.39, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 171% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TXRH a value trap in 2026?

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) has a median fair value of $116.39 — 28.8% below the current price of $163.57 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TXRH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TXRH valuation
  • Financial statements: Texas Roadhouse, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001289460) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TXRH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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