Wingstop Inc. (WING) Fair Value 2026

WING · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Wingstop Inc. (WING) trades at $109.95, versus a $53.70 median fair value across its 9 active models — 51.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $36.85.

Key Facts

Ticker
WING
Price
$109.95
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +3.8% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Wingstop Inc. (WING) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Wingstop Inc. (WING) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $53.70, 51.2% below the current price of $109.95. Estimates range from $7.47 to $137.56. WING scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. WING’s -51.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Wingstop Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WING?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($109.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.85 -66.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $53.94 -50.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $114.15 +3.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $51.44 -53.2%
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What Is WING's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $7.47 to $137.56

CirclFi's 9 active models place Wingstop Inc. (WING) between $7.47 and $137.56 per share, a spread of 242% of the median. The median of that range — $53.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WING, against a current price of $109.95.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$7.47median $53.70$137.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$7.47
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$137.56
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for WING. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WING, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Wingstop Inc. (WING) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Wingstop Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $53.70, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $109.95. With 7 out of 9 models flagging downside (-51.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $137.56 (+25.1%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $7.47 (-93.2%). This +118.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Wingstop Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About WING?

9 of 13 models are currently active for WING. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for WING is $53.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $36.85 on its own, implying -66.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WING Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, WING ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places WING in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

As a consumer sector, Wingstop Inc. operates in a sector where brand equity index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating WING should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is WING a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WING a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Wingstop Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Wingstop Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +118.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WING valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WING's 9 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Wingstop Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.QOC 9.1BDLFlanigan's Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.8CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2BROSDutch Bros Inc.QOC 8.7EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3RAVERave Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 8.5DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.1PTLOPortillo's Inc.QOC 7.1BRCBBlack Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.QOC 5.4

Read investment analysis: TXRH · BDL · CMG · BROS · EAT · RAVE · DRI · PTLO · BRCB

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WING?

7 companies across all industries closest to WING’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.9WWDWoodward, Inc.QOC 8.9FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.QOC 8.9CHCIComstock Holding Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9ROLRollins, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BR · WWD · FCX · CHCI · PR · ROL · NVDA

Where Does WING Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

WING is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Wingstop Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Wingstop Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Wingstop Inc. (WING)'s intrinsic value at $53.70 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.47 to $137.56. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $36.85 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WING overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $109.95, 2 of 9 active models suggest WING may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $53.70, 51.2% below the current price of $109.95 — a consensus view that WING is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Wingstop Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for WING?

Wingstop Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WING?

CirclFi analyzes WING with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WING?

Of the 9 models currently active on WING, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $137.56 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $7.47. CirclFi's published fair value for WING is the median of that range, $53.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 242% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WING a value trap in 2026?

Wingstop Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Wingstop Inc. (WING) has a median fair value of $53.70 — 51.2% below the current price of $109.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WING/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WING valuation
  • Financial statements: Wingstop Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001636222) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WING as of ; valuations recomputed .

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