Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Fair Value 2026

OTEX · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Open Text Corporation (OTEX) trades at $25.10, versus a $46.28 median fair value across its 12 active models — 84.4% above the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $45.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
OTEX
Price
$25.10
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +253.4% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Open Text Corporation (OTEX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $46.28, 84.4% above the current price of $25.10. Estimates range from $11.37 to $102.85. OTEX scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. OTEX’s +84.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Open Text Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OTEX?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $45.53 +81.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.37 -54.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $47.03 +87.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $88.71 +253.4%
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What Is OTEX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $11.37 to $102.85

CirclFi's 12 active models place Open Text Corporation (OTEX) between $11.37 and $102.85 per share, a spread of 198% of the median. The median of that range — $46.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OTEX, against a current price of $25.10.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$11.37median $46.28$102.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$11.37
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$102.85
Model agreement9 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OTEX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OTEX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Open Text Corporation is potentially undervalued at its current price of $25.10. Based on our 13-model framework, Open Text Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $46.28 — representing +84.4% implied upside — with 9 out of 12 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $102.85 (+309.7%), versus EPV at $11.37 (-54.7%). This +364.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About OTEX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for OTEX. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OTEX is $46.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $45.53 on its own, implying +81.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OTEX Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, OTEX ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places OTEX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Open Text Corporation's positioning within the Software - Application segment means that rule of 40 score plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including AI/ML integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is OTEX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OTEX a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Open Text Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Open Text Corporation earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +364.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OTEX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OTEX's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Open Text Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

BSYBentley Systems, IncorporatedQOC 9.1EGANeGain CorporationQOC 9.0ESTCElastic N.V.QOC 9.1INTUIntuit Inc.QOC 9.0UBERUber Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1AGYSAgilysys, Inc.QOC 9.0CCCCCC Intelligent Solutions Holdings Inc.QOC 7.6IPMIntelligent Protection Management Corp.QOC 6.2AMODAlpha Modus Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.4ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: BSY · EGAN · ESTC · INTU · UBER · AGYS · CCC · IPM · AMOD · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OTEX?

6 companies across all industries closest to OTEX’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

MUMicron Technology, Inc.QOC 9.1GLREGreenlight Capital Re, Ltd.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1CRVLCorVel CorporationQOC 9.1COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MU · GLRE · PEBO · CRVL · COKE · NVDA

Where Does OTEX Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

OTEX is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Open Text Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Open Text Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Open Text Corporation (OTEX)'s intrinsic value at $46.28 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $11.37 to $102.85. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $45.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OTEX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.10, 9 of 12 active models suggest OTEX may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $46.28, 84.4% above the current price of $25.10 — a consensus view that OTEX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Open Text Corporation's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for OTEX?

Open Text Corporation's QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OTEX?

CirclFi analyzes OTEX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OTEX?

Of the 12 models currently active on OTEX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $102.85 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $11.37. CirclFi's published fair value for OTEX is the median of that range, $46.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 198% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OTEX a value trap in 2026?

Open Text Corporation's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Open Text Corporation (OTEX) has a median fair value of $46.28 — 84.4% above the current price of $25.10 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OTEX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OTEX valuation
  • Financial statements: Open Text Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001002638) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OTEX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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