Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Fair Value 2026

ESTC · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) trades at $99.91, versus a $68.98 median fair value across its 5 active models — 31.0% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $74.45.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESTC
Price
$99.91
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $68.98, 31.0% below the current price of $99.91. Estimates range from $41.92 to $115.62. ESTC scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ESTC’s -31.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Elastic N.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ESTC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($99.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.45 -25.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $68.98 -31.0%
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What Is ESTC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $41.92 to $115.62

CirclFi's 5 active models place Elastic N.V. (ESTC) between $41.92 and $115.62 per share, a spread of 107% of the median. The median of that range — $68.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ESTC, against a current price of $99.91.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$41.92median $68.98$115.62
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$41.92
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$115.62
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ESTC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ESTC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Elastic N.V.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $68.98, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $99.91. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-31.0% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $115.62 (+15.7%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $41.92 (-58.0%). This +73.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Elastic N.V.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ESTC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ESTC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ESTC is $68.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $74.45 on its own, implying -25.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESTC Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, ESTC ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places ESTC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

Within the Software - Application space, Elastic N.V. competes in an environment where R&D intensity often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ESTC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ESTC a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Elastic N.V.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Elastic N.V. is rated at 9.1/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +73.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESTC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESTC's 5 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Elastic N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

UBERUber Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1BSYBentley Systems, IncorporatedQOC 9.1YMMFull Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.QOC 9.2OTEXOpen Text CorporationQOC 9.1CDNSCadence Design Systems, Inc.QOC 9.2EGANeGain CorporationQOC 9.0DBDDiebold Nixdorf, IncorporatedQOC 7.7PARPAR Technology CorporationQOC 6.2SVMBJingbo Technology, Inc.QOC 4.4ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: UBER · BSY · YMM · OTEX · CDNS · EGAN · DBD · PAR · SVMB · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ESTC?

6 companies across all industries closest to ESTC’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

EXLSExlService Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc.QOC 9.1UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc.QOC 9.1ITGartner, Inc.QOC 9.1XYLXylem Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EXLS · TGLS · UTI · IT · XYL · NVDA

Where Does ESTC Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

ESTC is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Elastic N.V.’s Valuation?

What is Elastic N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Elastic N.V. (ESTC)'s intrinsic value at $68.98 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $41.92 to $115.62. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $74.45 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESTC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $99.91, 1 of 5 active models suggest ESTC may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $68.98, 31.0% below the current price of $99.91 — a consensus view that ESTC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Elastic N.V.'s business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for ESTC?

Elastic N.V.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESTC?

CirclFi analyzes ESTC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ESTC?

Of the 5 models currently active on ESTC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $115.62 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $41.92. CirclFi's published fair value for ESTC is the median of that range, $68.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 107% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ESTC a value trap in 2026?

Elastic N.V.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has a median fair value of $68.98 — 31.0% below the current price of $99.91 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ESTC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ESTC valuation
  • Financial statements: Elastic N.V. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001707753) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ESTC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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