Xylem Inc. (XYL) Fair Value 2026

XYL · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Xylem Inc. (XYL) trades at $112.65, versus a $65.42 median fair value across its 11 active models — 41.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $65.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
XYL
Price
$112.65
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +37.8% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Xylem Inc. (XYL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Xylem Inc. (XYL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $65.42, 41.9% below the current price of $112.65. Estimates range from $28.98 to $199.00. XYL scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. XYL’s -41.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Xylem Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give XYL?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($112.65)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.42 -41.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.99 -74.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $67.58 -40.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $155.18 +37.8%
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What Is XYL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $28.98 to $199.00

CirclFi's 11 active models place Xylem Inc. (XYL) between $28.98 and $199.00 per share, a spread of 260% of the median. The median of that range — $65.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for XYL, against a current price of $112.65.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$28.98median $65.42$199.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$28.98
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$199.00
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for XYL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on XYL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Xylem Inc. (XYL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Xylem Inc. at its current price of $112.65. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $65.42 (-41.9% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +76.7% (fair value: $199.00), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -74.3% ($28.98). The spread between these extremes — +150.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About XYL?

11 of 13 models are currently active for XYL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for XYL is $65.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $65.42 on its own, implying -41.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XYL Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, XYL ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places XYL in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

Within the Specialty Industrial Machinery space, Xylem Inc. competes in an environment where working capital efficiency often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is XYL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XYL a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Xylem Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Xylem Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.1/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +150.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XYL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XYL's 11 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Xylem Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

ITTITT Inc.QOC 9.3NDSNNordson CorporationQOC 9.1MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.QOC 9.3GGGGraco Inc.QOC 9.1PHParker-Hannifin CorporationQOC 9.3AOSA. O. Smith CorporationQOC 9.0FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc.QOC 8.5MIDDThe Middleby CorporationQOC 7.3SHMDSCHMID Group N.V.QOC 4.7EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ITT · NDSN · MWA · GGG · PH · AOS · FELE · MIDD · SHMD · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to XYL?

7 companies across all industries closest to XYL’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc.QOC 9.1CMRECostamare Inc.QOC 9.1EXLSExlService Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.QOC 9.1UBERUber Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.1TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UTI · CMRE · EXLS · ANF · UBER · TXRH · NVDA

Where Does XYL Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

XYL is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Xylem Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Xylem Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Xylem Inc. (XYL)'s intrinsic value at $65.42 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $28.98 to $199.00. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $65.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XYL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $112.65, 3 of 11 active models suggest XYL may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $65.42, 41.9% below the current price of $112.65 — a consensus view that XYL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Xylem Inc.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for XYL?

Xylem Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XYL?

CirclFi analyzes XYL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on XYL?

Of the 11 models currently active on XYL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $199.00 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $28.98. CirclFi's published fair value for XYL is the median of that range, $65.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 260% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is XYL a value trap in 2026?

Xylem Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Xylem Inc. (XYL) has a median fair value of $65.42 — 41.9% below the current price of $112.65 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XYL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this XYL valuation
  • Financial statements: Xylem Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001524472) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for XYL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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