Graco Inc. (GGG) Fair Value 2026

GGG · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Graco Inc. (GGG) trades at $79.62, versus a $57.37 median fair value across its 10 active models — 27.9% below the current price. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $60.94.

Key Facts

Ticker
GGG
Price
$79.62
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Graco Inc. (GGG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Graco Inc. (GGG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $57.37, 27.9% below the current price of $79.62. Estimates range from $27.04 to $94.57. GGG scores 9.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GGG’s -27.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Graco Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GGG?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($79.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $60.94 -23.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.02 -54.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $53.80 -32.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.04 -66.0%
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What Is GGG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $27.04 to $94.57

CirclFi's 10 active models place Graco Inc. (GGG) between $27.04 and $94.57 per share, a spread of 118% of the median. The median of that range — $57.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GGG, against a current price of $79.62.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$27.04median $57.37$94.57
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$27.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$94.57
Model agreement1 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GGG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GGG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Graco Inc. (GGG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Graco Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $57.37, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $79.62. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-27.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $94.57 (+18.8%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $27.04 (-66.0%). This +84.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Graco Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About GGG?

10 of 13 models are currently active for GGG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GGG is $57.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $60.94 on its own, implying -23.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GGG Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, GGG ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places GGG in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

Within the Specialty Industrial Machinery space, Graco Inc. competes in an environment where aftermarket revenue mix often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is GGG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GGG a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Graco Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Graco Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.1/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +84.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GGG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GGG's 10 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Graco Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

NDSNNordson CorporationQOC 9.1AOSA. O. Smith CorporationQOC 9.0XYLXylem Inc.QOC 9.1GTESGates Industrial Corporation Ltd.QOC 9.0ITTITT Inc.QOC 9.3GHMGraham CorporationQOC 9.0EMREmerson Electric Co.QOC 8.4CEPLCapstone Energy+, Inc.QOC 6.9NPWRNET Power Inc.QOC 4.6EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: NDSN · AOS · XYL · GTES · ITT · GHM · EMR · CEPL · NPWR · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GGG?

7 companies across all industries closest to GGG’s Quality of Company score of 9.1/10.

BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1RAMPLiveRamp Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1GDDYGoDaddy Inc.QOC 9.1ACTEnact Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1XYZBlock, Inc.QOC 9.1AXPAmerican Express CompanyQOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BSM · RAMP · GDDY · ACT · XYZ · AXP · NVDA

Where Does GGG Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

GGG is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Graco Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Graco Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Graco Inc. (GGG)'s intrinsic value at $57.37 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $27.04 to $94.57. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $60.94 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GGG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $79.62, 2 of 10 active models suggest GGG may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $57.37, 27.9% below the current price of $79.62 — a consensus view that GGG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Graco Inc.'s business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for GGG?

Graco Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GGG?

CirclFi analyzes GGG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GGG?

Of the 10 models currently active on GGG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $94.57 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $27.04. CirclFi's published fair value for GGG is the median of that range, $57.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 118% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GGG a value trap in 2026?

Graco Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Graco Inc. (GGG) has a median fair value of $57.37 — 27.9% below the current price of $79.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GGG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GGG valuation
  • Financial statements: Graco Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000042888) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GGG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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