A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) Fair Value 2026

AOS · Specialty Industrial Machinery ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) trades at $61.95, versus a $50.03 median fair value across its 10 active models — 19.2% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $48.62.

Key Facts

Ticker
AOS
Price
$61.95
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.0/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $50.03, 19.2% below the current price of $61.95. Estimates range from $26.84 to $110.09. AOS scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AOS’s -19.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Industrial Machinery sector median is -47.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy A. O. Smith Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AOS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($61.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $48.62 -21.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $33.27 -46.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $51.45 -16.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.84 -56.7%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is AOS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $26.84 to $110.09

CirclFi's 10 active models place A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) between $26.84 and $110.09 per share, a spread of 166% of the median. The median of that range — $50.03 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AOS, against a current price of $61.95.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$26.84median $50.03$110.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$26.84
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$110.09
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AOS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AOS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on A. O. Smith Corporation at its current price of $61.95. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $50.03 (-19.2% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $110.09 (+77.7%), versus EROIC at $26.84 (-56.7%). This +134.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AOS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AOS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AOS is $50.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $48.62 on its own, implying -21.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AOS Rank in Specialty Industrial Machinery?

Among 84 Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, AOS ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places AOS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks →

As a industrial enterprise, A. O. Smith Corporation operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AOS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AOS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AOS a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for A. O. Smith Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, A. O. Smith Corporation is rated at 9.0/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +134.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AOS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AOS's 10 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy A. O. Smith Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks with 13-model coverage

GGGGraco Inc.QOC 9.1GTESGates Industrial Corporation Ltd.QOC 9.0NDSNNordson CorporationQOC 9.1GHMGraham CorporationQOC 9.0XYLXylem Inc.QOC 9.1AMEAMETEK, Inc.QOC 8.9OTISOtis Worldwide CorporationQOC 8.4HURCHurco Companies, Inc.QOC 6.8QINDQuality Industrial Corp.QOC 4.3EPACEnerpac Tool Group Corp.QOC 9.4WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: GGG · GTES · NDSN · GHM · XYL · AME · OTIS · HURC · QIND · EPAC · WTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AOS?

7 companies across all industries closest to AOS’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0ANIPANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.0FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.QOC 9.0AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0SNASnap-on IncorporatedQOC 9.0ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HAYW · ANIP · FDS · AWI · SNA · ALV · NVDA

Where Does AOS Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Industrial Machinery Rankings?

AOS is ranked against every other Specialty Industrial Machinery stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About A. O. Smith Corporation’s Valuation?

What is A. O. Smith Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS)'s intrinsic value at $50.03 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $26.84 to $110.09. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $48.62 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AOS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $61.95, 3 of 10 active models suggest AOS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $50.03, 19.2% below the current price of $61.95 — a consensus view that AOS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits A. O. Smith Corporation's business model in Specialty Industrial Machinery.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for AOS?

A. O. Smith Corporation's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AOS?

CirclFi analyzes AOS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AOS?

Of the 10 models currently active on AOS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $110.09 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $26.84. CirclFi's published fair value for AOS is the median of that range, $50.03, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 166% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AOS a value trap in 2026?

A. O. Smith Corporation's Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) has a median fair value of $50.03 — 19.2% below the current price of $61.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AOS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AOS valuation
  • Financial statements: A. O. Smith Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000091142) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AOS as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AOS.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for AOS Unlock All 10 — $39/mo