BT Brands, Inc. (BTBD) Fair Value 2026

BTBD · Retail-Eating Places ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, BT Brands, Inc. (BTBD) trades at $1.11, approximately 1465% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.07. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTBD
Price
$1.11
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +298.8% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$0.07 -93.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$1.75 +57.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$1.13 +1.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$4.41 +298.8%

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What Is BT Brands, Inc. (BTBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BT Brands, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $1.11. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $1.28 (+15.6% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $4.41 (+298.8%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.07 (-93.6%). This +392.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BTBD?

13 of 13 models are currently active for BTBD. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BTBD's intrinsic value at $0.07, implying -93.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTBD Rank in Retail-Eating Places?

Among 42 Retail-Eating Places stocks, BTBD ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Retail-Eating Places Stocks →

BT Brands, Inc.'s positioning within the Retail-Eating Places segment means that gross margin expansion plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BTBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTBD a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for BT Brands, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, BT Brands, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +392.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTBD's 13 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BT Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Eating Places Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Eating Places stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMG · TXRH · WING · NATH · MCD

See all Retail-Eating Places stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About BT Brands, Inc.

What is BT Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, BT Brands, Inc. (BTBD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.07. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.11, 7 of 13 active models suggest BTBD may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BT Brands, Inc.'s business model in Retail-Eating Places.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for BTBD?

BT Brands, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTBD?

CirclFi analyzes BTBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BTBD a value trap in 2026?

BT Brands, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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