Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) Fair Value 2026

JACK · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) trades at $15.90, versus a $34.02 median fair value across its 5 active models — 113.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JACK
Price
$15.90
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +94.8% upside with 22% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $34.02, 113.9% above the current price of $15.90. Estimates range from $21.73 to $50.21. JACK scores 6.7/10 on fundamental quality and 15/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. JACK’s +113.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Jack in the Box Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JACK?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.73 +36.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $30.97 +94.8%
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What Is JACK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $21.73 to $50.21

CirclFi's 5 active models place Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) between $21.73 and $50.21 per share, a spread of 84% of the median. The median of that range — $34.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JACK, against a current price of $15.90.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$21.73median $34.02$50.21
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$21.73
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$50.21
Model agreement5 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JACK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Jack in the Box Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $15.90. Based on our 13-model framework, Jack in the Box Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $34.02 — representing +113.9% implied upside — with 5 out of 5 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $50.21 (+215.8%), versus EPV at $21.73 (+36.7%). This +179.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About JACK?

5 of 13 models are currently active for JACK. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for JACK is $34.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JACK Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, JACK ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

As a consumer-facing company, Jack in the Box Inc. operates in a sector where inventory turnover is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating JACK should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is JACK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JACK a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Jack in the Box Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Jack in the Box Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JACK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JACK's 5 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Jack in the Box Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

BTBDBT Brands, Inc.QOC 6.7BHBiglari Holdings Inc.QOC 6.1MBMasterBeef GroupQOC 6.8KRUSKura Sushi USA, Inc.QOC 6.0CAVACAVA Group, Inc.QOC 6.9SGSweetgreen, Inc.QOC 5.9VENUVenu Holding CorporationQOC 5.1CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: BTBD · BH · MB · KRUS · CAVA · SG · VENU · CAKE · QSR · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JACK?

7 companies across all industries closest to JACK’s Quality of Company score of 6.7/10.

GAIAGaia, Inc.QOC 6.7CCOClear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.7ANGOAngioDynamics, Inc.QOC 6.7OUSTOuster, Inc.QOC 6.7RDWRedwire CorporationQOC 6.7GEOSGeospace Technologies CorporationQOC 6.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GAIA · CCO · ANGO · OUST · RDW · GEOS · NVDA

Where Does JACK Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

JACK is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Jack in the Box Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Jack in the Box Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK)'s intrinsic value at $34.02 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $21.73 to $50.21. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JACK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.90, 5 of 5 active models suggest JACK may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $34.02, 113.9% above the current price of $15.90 — a consensus view that JACK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Jack in the Box Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for JACK?

Jack in the Box Inc.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JACK?

CirclFi analyzes JACK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JACK?

Of the 5 models currently active on JACK, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $50.21 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $21.73. CirclFi's published fair value for JACK is the median of that range, $34.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 84% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JACK a value trap in 2026?

Jack in the Box Inc.'s Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Jack in the Box Inc. (JACK) has a median fair value of $34.02 — 113.9% above the current price of $15.90 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JACK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JACK valuation
  • Financial statements: Jack in the Box Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000807882) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JACK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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