Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) Fair Value 2026

QSR · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) trades at $78.26, versus a $39.84 median fair value across its 12 active models — 49.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $32.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
QSR
Price
$78.26
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $39.84, 49.1% below the current price of $78.26. Estimates range from $14.20 to $118.58. QSR scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. QSR’s -49.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -20.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Restaurant Brands International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give QSR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.67 -58.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.57 -53.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $40.81 -47.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $67.58 -13.6%
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What Is QSR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $14.20 to $118.58

CirclFi's 12 active models place Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) between $14.20 and $118.58 per share, a spread of 262% of the median. The median of that range — $39.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for QSR, against a current price of $78.26.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$14.20median $39.84$118.58
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$14.20
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$118.58
Model agreement1 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for QSR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on QSR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $39.84. Trading at its current price of $78.26, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -49.1%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $118.58 (+51.5%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $14.20 (-81.9%). This +133.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About QSR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for QSR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for QSR is $39.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $32.67 on its own, implying -58.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does QSR Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, QSR ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

The Restaurants sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Restaurant Brands International Inc., metrics like same-store sales growth (comps) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is QSR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns QSR a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Restaurant Brands International Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Restaurant Brands International Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +133.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every QSR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across QSR's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Restaurant Brands International Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

RICKRCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7LOCOEl Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8NROMNoble Roman's, Inc.QOC 7.4CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.QOC 7.9SBUXStarbucks CorporationQOC 7.4BTBDBT Brands, Inc.QOC 6.7VENUVenu Holding CorporationQOC 5.1CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: RICK · LOCO · SHAK · NROM · CBRL · SBUX · BTBD · VENU · CAKE · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to QSR?

7 companies across all industries closest to QSR’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

MDLZMondelez International, Inc.QOC 7.6MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6RDNRadian Group Inc.QOC 7.6VTSIVirTra, Inc.QOC 7.6TXG10x Genomics, Inc.QOC 7.6LXULSB Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MDLZ · MTSI · RDN · VTSI · TXG · LXU · NVDA

Where Does QSR Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

QSR is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Restaurant Brands International Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)'s intrinsic value at $39.84 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.20 to $118.58. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $32.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is QSR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.26, 1 of 12 active models suggest QSR may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $39.84, 49.1% below the current price of $78.26 — a consensus view that QSR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for QSR?

Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on QSR?

CirclFi analyzes QSR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on QSR?

Of the 12 models currently active on QSR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $118.58 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $14.20. CirclFi's published fair value for QSR is the median of that range, $39.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 262% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is QSR a value trap in 2026?

Restaurant Brands International Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) has a median fair value of $39.84 — 49.1% below the current price of $78.26 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/QSR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this QSR valuation

Market data for QSR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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