Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) Fair Value 2026

LOAR · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) trades at $73.09, versus a $24.39 median fair value across its 9 active models — 66.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.76.

Key Facts

Ticker
LOAR
Price
$73.09
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $24.39, 66.6% below the current price of $73.09. Estimates range from $6.38 to $71.15. LOAR scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LOAR’s -66.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Loar Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LOAR?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($73.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.76 -44.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $24.39 -66.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $42.71 -41.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.38 -91.3%
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What Is LOAR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.38 to $71.15

CirclFi's 9 active models place Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) between $6.38 and $71.15 per share, a spread of 266% of the median. The median of that range — $24.39 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LOAR, against a current price of $73.09.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$6.38median $24.39$71.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.38
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$71.15
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LOAR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LOAR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Loar Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $24.39. Trading at its current price of $73.09, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -66.6%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $71.15 (-2.7%), versus ML-RIV at $6.38 (-91.3%). This +88.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LOAR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for LOAR. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for LOAR is $24.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.76 on its own, implying -44.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LOAR Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, LOAR ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

Loar Holdings Inc.'s positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that backlog-to-revenue ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including next-gen platform contracts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LOAR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LOAR a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Loar Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Loar Holdings Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +88.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LOAR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LOAR's 9 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Loar Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

SAROStandardAero, Inc.QOC 7.7KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.QOC 7.4HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc.QOC 7.7NPKNational Presto Industries, Inc.QOC 7.4FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.QOC 7.8BAThe Boeing CompanyQOC 7.4DUKRDUKE Robotics Corp.QOC 5.9PHGEBiomX Inc.QOC 4.0HXLHexcel CorporationQOC 8.7BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: SARO · KTOS · HII · NPK · FTAI · BA · DUKR · PHGE · HXL · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LOAR?

7 companies across all industries closest to LOAR’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

BIRKBirkenstock Holding plcQOC 7.6SKMSK Telecom Co., Ltd.QOC 7.6MHKMohawk Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6AVBAvalonBay Communities IncQOC 7.6GYREGyre Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.6BTIBritish American Tobacco p.l.c.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BIRK · SKM · MHK · AVB · GYRE · BTI · NVDA

Where Does LOAR Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

LOAR is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Loar Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Loar Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR)'s intrinsic value at $24.39 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.38 to $71.15. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.76 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LOAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $73.09, 0 of 9 active models suggest LOAR may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $24.39, 66.6% below the current price of $73.09 — a consensus view that LOAR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Loar Holdings Inc.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for LOAR?

Loar Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LOAR?

CirclFi analyzes LOAR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LOAR?

Of the 9 models currently active on LOAR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $71.15 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.38. CirclFi's published fair value for LOAR is the median of that range, $24.39, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 266% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LOAR a value trap in 2026?

Loar Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR) has a median fair value of $24.39 — 66.6% below the current price of $73.09 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LOAR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LOAR valuation
  • Financial statements: Loar Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002000178) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LOAR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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