Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Fair Value 2026

DCO · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) trades at $183.93, versus a $161.84 median fair value across its 3 active models — 12.0% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DCO
Price
$183.93
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +28.3% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $161.84, 12.0% below the current price of $183.93. Estimates range from $3.97 to $235.96. DCO scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DCO’s -12.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -23.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ducommun Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DCO?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($183.93)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.97 -97.8%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $235.96 +28.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $161.84 -12.0%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is DCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $3.97 to $235.96

CirclFi's 3 active models place Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) between $3.97 and $235.96 per share, a spread of 143% of the median. The median of that range — $161.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DCO, against a current price of $183.93.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$3.97median $161.84$235.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.97
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$235.96
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ducommun Incorporated's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $161.84. Trading at $183.93, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -12.0%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +28.3% (fair value: $235.96), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -97.8% ($3.97). The spread between these extremes — +126.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About DCO?

3 of 13 models are currently active for DCO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DCO is $161.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DCO Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 92 Aerospace & Defense stocks, DCO ranks #39 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

The Aerospace & Defense sector introduces analytical considerations specific to defense contractor businesses. For Ducommun Incorporated, metrics like backlog-to-revenue ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DCO a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Ducommun Incorporated. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ducommun Incorporated earns a quality score of 7.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +126.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DCO's 3 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ducommun Incorporated Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.QOC 6.9MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3KRMNKarman Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9VSECVSE CorporationQOC 7.3AVAVAeroVironment, Inc.QOC 6.8EVTLVertical Aerospace Ltd.QOC 5.3XERIXeriant, Inc.QOC 3.7GDGeneral Dynamics CorporationQOC 8.4BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: RKLB · RGR · MRCY · KRMN · VSEC · AVAV · EVTL · XERI · GD · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to DCO’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

PRTAProthena Corporation plcQOC 7.0ADAGAdagene Inc.QOC 7.0WHRWhirlpool CorporationQOC 7.0UPBDUpbound Group, Inc.QOC 7.0HROWHarrow, Inc.QOC 7.0GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRTA · ADAG · WHR · UPBD · HROW · GWRS · NVDA

Where Does DCO Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

DCO is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ducommun Incorporated’s Valuation?

What is Ducommun Incorporated's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ducommun Incorporated (DCO)'s intrinsic value at $161.84 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.97 to $235.96. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $183.93, 1 of 3 active models suggest DCO may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $161.84, 12.0% below the current price of $183.93 — a consensus view that DCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ducommun Incorporated's business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for DCO?

Ducommun Incorporated's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DCO?

CirclFi analyzes DCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DCO?

Of the 3 models currently active on DCO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $235.96 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.97. CirclFi's published fair value for DCO is the median of that range, $161.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 143% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DCO a value trap in 2026?

Ducommun Incorporated's Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) has a median fair value of $161.84 — 12.0% below the current price of $183.93 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Ducommun Incorporated 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000030305) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DCO as of ; valuations recomputed .