ESAB Corporation (ESAB) Fair Value 2026

ESAB · Metal Fabrication ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ESAB Corporation (ESAB) trades at $78.99, versus a $39.30 median fair value across its 12 active models — 50.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.11.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESAB
Price
$78.99
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +262.4% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ESAB Corporation (ESAB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ESAB Corporation (ESAB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $39.30, 50.2% below the current price of $78.99. Estimates range from $7.02 to $286.30. ESAB scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ESAB’s -50.2% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ESAB Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ESAB?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.11 -84.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.17 -79.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $46.90 -40.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $286.30 +262.4%
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What Is ESAB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $7.02 to $286.30

CirclFi's 12 active models place ESAB Corporation (ESAB) between $7.02 and $286.30 per share, a spread of 711% of the median. The median of that range — $39.30 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ESAB, against a current price of $78.99.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$7.02median $39.30$286.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$7.02
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$286.30
Model agreement4 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ESAB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ESAB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ESAB Corporation (ESAB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on ESAB Corporation at its current price of $78.99. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $39.30 (-50.2% vs price), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +262.4% (fair value: $286.30), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -91.1% ($7.02). The spread between these extremes — +353.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ESAB?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ESAB. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ESAB is $39.30 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.11 on its own, implying -84.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESAB Rank in Metal Fabrication?

Among 19 Metal Fabrication stocks, ESAB ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

As a manufacturing company, ESAB Corporation operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ESAB should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ESAB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ESAB a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for ESAB Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ESAB Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +353.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESAB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESAB's 12 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ESAB Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Fabrication Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Metal Fabrication stocks with 13-model coverage

CMCCommercial Metals CompanyQOC 7.7TGTredegar CorporationQOC 7.3WORWorthington Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.9RYZRyerson Holding CorporationQOC 7.3PRLBProto Labs, Inc.QOC 7.9MECMayville Engineering Company, Inc.QOC 6.6TRSGTungray Technologies Inc.QOC 6.4OLOXOlenox Industries Inc.QOC 3.9ATIATI Inc.QOC 8.7MLIMueller Industries, Inc.QOC 9.4CRSCarpenter Technology CorporationQOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: CMC · TG · WOR · RYZ · PRLB · MEC · TRSG · OLOX · ATI · MLI · CRS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ESAB?

7 companies across all industries closest to ESAB’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

ASFHAsiaFIN Holdings Corp.QOC 7.6JLJ-Long Group LimitedQOC 7.6DITAMCON Distributing CompanyQOC 7.6EVCMEverCommerce Inc.QOC 7.6MIRMirion Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.6LINCLincoln Educational Services CorporationQOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ASFH · JL · DIT · EVCM · MIR · LINC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ESAB Corporation’s Valuation?

What is ESAB Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ESAB Corporation (ESAB)'s intrinsic value at $39.30 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.02 to $286.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.11 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESAB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.99, 4 of 12 active models suggest ESAB may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $39.30, 50.2% below the current price of $78.99 — a consensus view that ESAB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ESAB Corporation's business model in Metal Fabrication.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for ESAB?

ESAB Corporation's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESAB?

CirclFi analyzes ESAB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ESAB?

Of the 12 models currently active on ESAB, First Chicago is the most bullish at $286.30 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $7.02. CirclFi's published fair value for ESAB is the median of that range, $39.30, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 711% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ESAB a value trap in 2026?

ESAB Corporation's Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, ESAB Corporation (ESAB) has a median fair value of $39.30 — 50.2% below the current price of $78.99 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ESAB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ESAB valuation
  • Financial statements: ESAB Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001877322) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ESAB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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