Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor (CBRL) Fair Value 2026

CBRL · Retail-Eating Places ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor (CBRL) trades at $52.35, approximately 133% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $22.47. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CBRL
Price
$52.35
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +3.0% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($52.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$22.47 -57.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$48.62 -7.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$39.56 -24.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$53.90 +3.0%

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What Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor (CBRL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor at its current price of $52.35. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $47.27 (-9.7% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $163.72 (+212.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $1.61 (-96.9%). This +309.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CBRL?

13 of 13 models are currently active for CBRL. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CBRL's intrinsic value at $22.47, implying -57.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CBRL Rank in Retail-Eating Places?

Among 42 Retail-Eating Places stocks, CBRL ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Retail-Eating Places Stocks →

Within the Retail-Eating Places space, Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor competes in an environment where same-store sales growth (comps) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CBRL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CBRL a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor is rated at 7.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +309.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CBRL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CBRL's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Eating Places Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Retail-Eating Places stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CMG · TXRH · WING · NATH · MCD

See all Retail-Eating Places stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor

What is Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor (CBRL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $22.47. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CBRL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $52.35, 5 of 13 active models suggest CBRL may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor's business model in Retail-Eating Places.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for CBRL?

Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CBRL?

CirclFi analyzes CBRL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CBRL a value trap in 2026?

Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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