Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) Fair Value 2026

CBRL · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) trades at $55.07, versus a $30.07 median fair value across its 12 active models — 45.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CBRL
Price
$55.07
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +250.8% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $30.07, 45.4% below the current price of $55.07. Estimates range from $5.18 to $193.16. CBRL scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CBRL’s -45.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CBRL?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($55.07)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.68 -47.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $31.19 -43.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $193.16 +250.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.77 -82.3%
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What Is CBRL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $5.18 to $193.16

CirclFi's 12 active models place Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) between $5.18 and $193.16 per share, a spread of 625% of the median. The median of that range — $30.07 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CBRL, against a current price of $55.07.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$5.18median $30.07$193.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$5.18
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$193.16
Model agreement2 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CBRL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CBRL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $30.07, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $55.07. With 10 out of 12 models flagging downside (-45.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $193.16 (+250.8%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $5.18 (-90.6%). This +341.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CBRL?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CBRL. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CBRL is $30.07 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CBRL Rank in Restaurants?

Among 55 Restaurants stocks, CBRL ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

Within the Restaurants space, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. competes in an environment where same-store sales growth (comps) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CBRL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CBRL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. is rated at 7.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +341.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CBRL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CBRL's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

WENThe Wendy's CompanyQOC 8.1SHAKShake Shack Inc.QOC 7.8DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.1RICKRCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.7YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2QSRRestaurant Brands International Inc.QOC 7.6FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 6.9GENKGEN Restaurant Group, Inc.QOC 5.2BDLFlanigan's Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.8EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: WEN · SHAK · DRI · RICK · YUMC · QSR · FWRG · GENK · BDL · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CBRL?

7 companies across all industries closest to CBRL’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

BALLBall CorporationQOC 7.9JBSSJohn B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.QOC 7.9DRHDiamondRock Hospitality CompanyQOC 7.9AUDCAudioCodes Ltd.QOC 7.9CARSCars.com Inc.QOC 7.9BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BALL · JBSS · DRH · AUDC · CARS · BIIB · NVDA

Where Does CBRL Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

CBRL is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL)'s intrinsic value at $30.07 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.18 to $193.16. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CBRL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $55.07, 2 of 12 active models suggest CBRL may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $30.07, 45.4% below the current price of $55.07 — a consensus view that CBRL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for CBRL?

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CBRL?

CirclFi analyzes CBRL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CBRL?

Of the 12 models currently active on CBRL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $193.16 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $5.18. CirclFi's published fair value for CBRL is the median of that range, $30.07, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 625% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CBRL a value trap in 2026?

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) has a median fair value of $30.07 — 45.4% below the current price of $55.07 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CBRL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CBRL valuation

Market data for CBRL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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