LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Fair Value 2026

LKQ · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (21/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, LKQ Corporation (LKQ) trades at $22.39, versus a $39.84 median fair value across its 12 active models — 77.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 21/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $40.75.

Key Facts

Ticker
LKQ
Price
$22.39
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
21/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +226.8% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, LKQ Corporation (LKQ) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $39.84, 77.9% above the current price of $22.39. Estimates range from $17.01 to $90.51. LKQ scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 21/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. LKQ’s +77.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -9.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LKQ Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LKQ?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.75 +82.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.21 +34.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $39.30 +75.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $73.16 +226.8%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$2 / day

Billed monthly ($60/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is LKQ's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $17.01 to $90.51

CirclFi's 12 active models place LKQ Corporation (LKQ) between $17.01 and $90.51 per share, a spread of 184% of the median. The median of that range — $39.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LKQ, against a current price of $22.39.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$17.01median $39.84$90.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$17.01
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$90.51
Model agreement8 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LKQ. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LKQ, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LKQ Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $39.84. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $22.39 (implied upside of +77.9%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +304.3% (fair value: $90.51), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -24.0% ($17.01). The spread between these extremes — +328.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LKQ?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LKQ. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LKQ is $39.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $40.75 on its own, implying +82.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LKQ Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 58 Auto Parts stocks, LKQ ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

LKQ Corporation's positioning within the Auto Parts segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fleet renewal cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LKQ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LKQ a score of 21/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for LKQ Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LKQ Corporation scores 7.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +328.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LKQ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LKQ's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LKQ Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

MLRMiller Industries, Inc.QOC 8.0HSAIHesai GroupQOC 7.7BWABorgWarner Inc.QOC 8.0HLLYHolley Inc.QOC 7.7PHINPHINIA Inc.QOC 8.0GPCGenuine Parts CompanyQOC 7.7FOXFFox Factory Holding Corp.QOC 6.6VGNTVersigent PLCQOC 5.4VCVisteon CorporationQOC 8.5ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: MLR · HSAI · BWA · HLLY · PHIN · GPC · FOXF · VGNT · VC · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LKQ?

7 companies across all industries closest to LKQ’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

LZLegalZoom.com, Inc.QOC 7.9DYNRDynaResource, Inc.QOC 7.9AROCArchrock, Inc.QOC 7.9UVVUniversal CorporationQOC 7.9LEATLeatt CorporationQOC 7.9EMBCEmbecta Corp.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LZ · DYNR · AROC · UVV · LEAT · EMBC · NVDA

Where Does LKQ Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

LKQ is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About LKQ Corporation’s Valuation?

What is LKQ Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts LKQ Corporation (LKQ)'s intrinsic value at $39.84 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $17.01 to $90.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $40.75 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LKQ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.39, 9 of 12 active models suggest LKQ may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $39.84, 77.9% above the current price of $22.39 — a consensus view that LKQ is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LKQ Corporation's business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for LKQ?

LKQ Corporation's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LKQ?

CirclFi analyzes LKQ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LKQ?

Of the 12 models currently active on LKQ, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $90.51 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $17.01. CirclFi's published fair value for LKQ is the median of that range, $39.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 184% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LKQ a value trap in 2026?

LKQ Corporation's Value Trap score is 21/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, LKQ Corporation (LKQ) has a median fair value of $39.84 — 77.9% above the current price of $22.39 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LKQ/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LKQ valuation
  • Financial statements: LKQ Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001065696) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LKQ as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on LKQ.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $60/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for LKQ Unlock All 12 — $60/mo