LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Fair Value 2026

LKQ · Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, LKQ Corporation (LKQ) trades at $25.41, approximately 57% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $59.74. QOC: 8.8/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LKQ
Price
$25.41
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +135.1% upside with 66% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$59.74 +135.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$33.24 +30.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$34.22 +34.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$18.93 -25.5%

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What Is LKQ Corporation (LKQ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LKQ Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $30.15. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $25.41 (implied upside of +18.6%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +135.1% (fair value: $59.74), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -57.2% ($10.87). The spread between these extremes — +192.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About LKQ?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LKQ. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LKQ's intrinsic value at $59.74, implying +135.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LKQ Rank in Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies?

Among 3 Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies stocks, LKQ ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places LKQ in the top tier.

LKQ Corporation's positioning within the Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies segment means that units delivered plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fleet renewal cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LKQ a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for LKQ. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for LKQ Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LKQ Corporation scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +192.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LKQ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LKQ's 12 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LKQ Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CTNT · INEO

Frequently Asked Questions About LKQ Corporation

What is LKQ Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, LKQ Corporation (LKQ) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $59.74. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LKQ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.41, 7 of 12 active models suggest LKQ may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LKQ Corporation's business model in Wholesale-Motor Vehicles & Motor Vehicle Parts & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for LKQ?

LKQ Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LKQ?

CirclFi analyzes LKQ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LKQ a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for LKQ at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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