Hesai Group (HSAI) Fair Value 2026

HSAI · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Hesai Group (HSAI) trades at $17.49, versus a $0.56 median fair value across its 8 active models — 96.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.31.

Key Facts

Ticker
HSAI
Price
$17.49
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Hesai Group (HSAI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Hesai Group (HSAI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $0.56, 96.8% below the current price of $17.49. Estimates range from $0.31 to $2.69. HSAI scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HSAI’s -96.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hesai Group Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HSAI?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.31 -98.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.81 -95.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $0.47 -97.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.52 -97.1%
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What Is HSAI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.31 to $2.69

CirclFi's 8 active models place Hesai Group (HSAI) between $0.31 and $2.69 per share, a spread of 426% of the median. The median of that range — $0.56 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HSAI, against a current price of $17.49.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · FTNN
$0.31median $0.56$2.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.31
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$2.69
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HSAI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HSAI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hesai Group (HSAI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hesai Group's intrinsic value is estimated at $0.56, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $17.49. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-96.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About HSAI?

8 of 13 models are currently active for HSAI. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for HSAI is $0.56 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.31 on its own, implying -98.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HSAI Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, HSAI ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

As a transportation company, Hesai Group operates in a sector where inventory days supply is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HSAI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HSAI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HSAI a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Hesai Group. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hesai Group's fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+13.6% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HSAI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HSAI's 8 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hesai Group Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

LKQLKQ CorporationQOC 7.9HLLYHolley Inc.QOC 7.7MLRMiller Industries, Inc.QOC 8.0GPCGenuine Parts CompanyQOC 7.7BWABorgWarner Inc.QOC 8.0APTVAptiv PLCQOC 7.7MBLYMobileye Global Inc.QOC 6.5FFLOFree Flow USA, Inc.QOC 5.0PLOWDouglas Dynamics, Inc.QOC 8.5ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: LKQ · HLLY · MLR · GPC · BWA · APTV · MBLY · FFLO · PLOW · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HSAI?

7 companies across all industries closest to HSAI’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

AXILAXIL Brands, Inc.QOC 7.7GFSGLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.QOC 7.7RBBNRibbon Communications Inc.QOC 7.7CTVACorteva, Inc.QOC 7.7BFSSaul Centers, Inc.QOC 7.7HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AXIL · GFS · RBBN · CTVA · BFS · HCSG · NVDA

Where Does HSAI Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

HSAI is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hesai Group’s Valuation?

What is Hesai Group's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hesai Group (HSAI)'s intrinsic value at $0.56 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.31 to $2.69. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.31 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HSAI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.49, 0 of 8 active models suggest HSAI may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $0.56, 96.8% below the current price of $17.49 — a consensus view that HSAI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hesai Group's business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for HSAI?

Hesai Group's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HSAI?

CirclFi analyzes HSAI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HSAI?

Of the 8 models currently active on HSAI, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $2.69 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.31. CirclFi's published fair value for HSAI is the median of that range, $0.56, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 426% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HSAI a value trap in 2026?

Hesai Group's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Hesai Group (HSAI) has a median fair value of $0.56 — 96.8% below the current price of $17.49 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HSAI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HSAI valuation
  • Financial statements: Hesai Group 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001861737) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HSAI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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