Embecta Corp. (EMBC) Fair Value 2026

EMBC · Medical Instruments & Supplies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Embecta Corp. (EMBC) trades at $5.05, versus a $7.12 median fair value across its 4 active models — 40.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 4/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.29.

Key Facts

Ticker
EMBC
Price
$5.05
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +461.0% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is Embecta Corp. (EMBC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Embecta Corp. (EMBC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $7.12, 40.9% above the current price of $5.05. Estimates range from $0.46 to $28.33. EMBC scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. EMBC’s +40.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Instruments & Supplies sector median is -29.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Embecta Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EMBC?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.29 +4.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $28.33 +461.0%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 2 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 4 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is EMBC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $0.46 to $28.33

CirclFi's 4 active models place Embecta Corp. (EMBC) between $0.46 and $28.33 per share, a spread of 392% of the median. The median of that range — $7.12 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EMBC, against a current price of $5.05.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · CUCE
$0.46median $7.12$28.33
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.46
Most bullish modelCUCE$28.33
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EMBC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EMBC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Embecta Corp. (EMBC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Embecta Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $7.12, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $5.05. While the median implied return is +40.9%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +551.8% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $28.33 (+461.0%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $0.46 (-90.8%). This +551.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Embecta Corp.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About EMBC?

4 of 13 models are currently active for EMBC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EMBC is $7.12 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.29 on its own, implying +4.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EMBC Rank in Medical Instruments & Supplies?

Among 56 Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, EMBC ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks →

Embecta Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is EMBC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EMBC a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for Embecta Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Embecta Corp. is rated at 7.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +551.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EMBC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EMBC's 4 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Embecta Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Instruments & Supplies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks with 13-model coverage

RGENRepligen CorporationQOC 8.0PDEXPro-Dex, Inc.QOC 7.8UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc.QOC 8.2ATRCAtriCure, Inc.QOC 7.8NVSTEnvista Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3STVNStevanato Group S.p.A.QOC 7.7ANGOAngioDynamics, Inc.QOC 6.7HBIOHarvard Bioscience, Inc.QOC 5.8NNNNAnbio BiotechnologyQOC 2.4ISRGIntuitive Surgical, Inc.QOC 9.4RMDResMed Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: RGEN · PDEX · UTMD · ATRC · NVST · STVN · ANGO · HBIO · NNNN · ISRG · RMD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EMBC?

7 companies across all industries closest to EMBC’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

MTNVail Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.8CPBICentral Plains Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8DYNRDynaResource, Inc.QOC 7.8MUSAMurphy USA Inc.QOC 7.8LKQLKQ CorporationQOC 7.9LZLegalZoom.com, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MTN · CPBI · DYNR · MUSA · LKQ · LZ · NVDA

Where Does EMBC Sit in CirclFi's Medical Instruments & Supplies Rankings?

EMBC is ranked against every other Medical Instruments & Supplies stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Embecta Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Embecta Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Embecta Corp. (EMBC)'s intrinsic value at $7.12 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.46 to $28.33. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.29 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EMBC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.05, 3 of 4 active models suggest EMBC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $7.12, 40.9% above the current price of $5.05 — a consensus view that EMBC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Embecta Corp.'s business model in Medical Instruments & Supplies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for EMBC?

Embecta Corp.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EMBC?

CirclFi analyzes EMBC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EMBC?

Of the 4 models currently active on EMBC, CUCE is the most bullish at $28.33 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.46. CirclFi's published fair value for EMBC is the median of that range, $7.12, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 392% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EMBC a value trap in 2026?

Embecta Corp.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, Embecta Corp. (EMBC) has a median fair value of $7.12 — 40.9% above the current price of $5.05 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EMBC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EMBC valuation
  • Financial statements: Embecta Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001872789) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EMBC as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 4 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on EMBC.

Unlock All 4 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

2 models hidden for EMBC Unlock All 4 — $39/mo