Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) Fair Value 2026

STVN · Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) trades at $19.82, approximately 297% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.99. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
STVN
Price
$19.82
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$4.99 -74.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$2.62 -86.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$7.50 -62.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$7.58 -61.8%

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What Is Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Stevanato Group S.p.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.07, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $19.82. With 13 out of 13 models flagging downside (-59.3% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at -10.1% (fair value: $17.81), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -94.2% ($1.16). The spread between these extremes — +84.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About STVN?

13 of 13 models are currently active for STVN. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates STVN's intrinsic value at $4.99, implying -74.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does STVN Rank in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus?

Among 117 Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks, STVN ranks #25 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks →

Stevanato Group S.p.A. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is STVN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns STVN a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Stevanato Group S.p.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Stevanato Group S.p.A. is rated at 7.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +84.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every STVN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across STVN's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Stevanato Group S.p.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: DXCM · IRMD · PODD · RMD · WST

See all Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Stevanato Group S.p.A.

What is Stevanato Group S.p.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Stevanato Group S.p.A. (STVN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $4.99. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is STVN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.82, 0 of 13 active models suggest STVN may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Stevanato Group S.p.A.'s business model in Surgical & Medical Instruments & Apparatus.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for STVN?

Stevanato Group S.p.A.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on STVN?

CirclFi analyzes STVN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is STVN a value trap in 2026?

Stevanato Group S.p.A.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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