What Is Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Murphy USA Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $664.59. Trading at its current price of $610.73, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of +8.8%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +419.8% (fair value: $3,174.29), while EROIC is the most conservative at -81.9% ($110.66). The spread between these extremes — +501.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About MUSA?
12 of 13 models are currently active for MUSA. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MUSA's intrinsic value at $651.11, implying +6.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MUSA Rank in Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations?
Among 19 Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations stocks, MUSA ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places MUSA in the top tier.
The Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Murphy USA Inc., metrics like store traffic trends provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.
Is MUSA a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MUSA a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Murphy USA Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Murphy USA Inc. scores 9.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +501.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MUSA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MUSA's 12 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
Buy with Gumroad