Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Fair Value 2026

CASY · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) trades at $763.38, versus a $294.05 median fair value across its 11 active models — 61.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $452.57.

Key Facts

Ticker
CASY
Price
$763.38
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $294.05, 61.5% below the current price of $763.38. Estimates range from $122.70 to $581.11. CASY scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 5/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CASY’s -61.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Casey's General Stores, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CASY?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($763.38)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $452.57 -40.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $153.91 -79.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $314.14 -58.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $581.11 -23.9%
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What Is CASY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $122.70 to $581.11

CirclFi's 11 active models place Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) between $122.70 and $581.11 per share, a spread of 156% of the median. The median of that range — $294.05 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CASY, against a current price of $763.38.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$122.70median $294.05$581.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$122.70
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$581.11
Model agreement0 bullish · 11 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CASY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CASY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $294.05. Trading at its current price of $763.38, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 11 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -61.5%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at -23.9% (fair value: $581.11), while EROIC is the most conservative at -83.9% ($122.70). The spread between these extremes — +60.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CASY?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CASY. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CASY is $294.05 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $452.57 on its own, implying -40.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CASY Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, CASY ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places CASY in the top tier.

Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Retail segment means that same-store sales growth (comps) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CASY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CASY a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Casey's General Stores, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Casey's General Stores, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +60.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CASY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CASY's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Casey's General Stores, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6WINAWinmark CorporationQOC 8.6MNSOMINISO Group Holding LimitedQOC 8.6ASOAcademy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.QOC 8.5ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.7BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.QOC 8.5RHRHQOC 7.5GRWGGrowGeneration Corp.QOC 6.2QVCGQVC Group Inc.QOC 4.9WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: FIVE · WINA · MNSO · ASO · ULTA · BBW · RH · GRWG · QVCG · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CASY?

6 companies across all industries closest to CASY’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc.QOC 8.6BUDABuda Juice, Inc.QOC 8.6INVAInnoviva, Inc.QOC 8.6FBIZFirst Business Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.6TRNOTerreno Realty CorporationQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ODFL · BUDA · INVA · FBIZ · TRNO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Casey's General Stores, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY)'s intrinsic value at $294.05 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $122.70 to $581.11. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $452.57 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CASY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $763.38, 0 of 11 active models suggest CASY may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $294.05, 61.5% below the current price of $763.38 — a consensus view that CASY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for CASY?

Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CASY?

CirclFi analyzes CASY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CASY?

Of the 11 models currently active on CASY, First Chicago is the most bullish at $581.11 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $122.70. CirclFi's published fair value for CASY is the median of that range, $294.05, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 156% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CASY a value trap in 2026?

Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) has a median fair value of $294.05 — 61.5% below the current price of $763.38 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CASY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CASY valuation
  • Financial statements: Casey's General Stores, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000726958) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CASY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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