Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Fair Value 2026

ULTA · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) trades at $540.10, versus a $403.77 median fair value across its 9 active models — 25.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $415.11.

Key Facts

Ticker
ULTA
Price
$540.10
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +33.4% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $403.77, 25.2% below the current price of $540.10. Estimates range from $173.56 to $720.31. ULTA scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ULTA’s -25.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ulta Beauty, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ULTA?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($540.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $415.11 -23.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $328.53 -39.2%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $403.77 -25.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $720.31 +33.4%
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What Is ULTA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $173.56 to $720.31

CirclFi's 9 active models place Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) between $173.56 and $720.31 per share, a spread of 135% of the median. The median of that range — $403.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ULTA, against a current price of $540.10.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$173.56median $403.77$720.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$173.56
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$720.31
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ULTA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ULTA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $403.77. Trading at its current price of $540.10, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -25.2%. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +33.4% (fair value: $720.31), while EROIC is the most conservative at -67.9% ($173.56). The spread between these extremes — +101.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ULTA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ULTA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ULTA is $403.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $415.11 on its own, implying -23.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ULTA Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, ULTA ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places ULTA in the top tier.

Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Retail segment means that e-commerce penetration rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ULTA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ULTA a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Ulta Beauty, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ulta Beauty, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +101.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ULTA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ULTA's 9 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ulta Beauty, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9MNSOMINISO Group Holding LimitedQOC 8.6WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6NPTTexxon Holding LimitedQOC 2.4CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.QOC 8.6SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0SPWHSportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3QSJCTancheng Group Co., Ltd.QOC 5.3

Read investment analysis: ARHS · MNSO · WSM · FIVE · NPT · CASY · SBH · SPWH · QSJC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ULTA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ULTA’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7TDWTidewater Inc.QOC 8.7CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 8.7RBCRBC Bearings IncorporatedQOC 8.7ECLEcolab Inc.QOC 8.7MCKMcKesson CorporationQOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PLNT · TDW · CHCO · RBC · ECL · MCK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ulta Beauty, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)'s intrinsic value at $403.77 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $173.56 to $720.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $415.11 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ULTA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $540.10, 2 of 9 active models suggest ULTA may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $403.77, 25.2% below the current price of $540.10 — a consensus view that ULTA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for ULTA?

Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ULTA?

CirclFi analyzes ULTA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ULTA?

Of the 9 models currently active on ULTA, First Chicago is the most bullish at $720.31 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $173.56. CirclFi's published fair value for ULTA is the median of that range, $403.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 135% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ULTA a value trap in 2026?

Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) has a median fair value of $403.77 — 25.2% below the current price of $540.10 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ULTA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ULTA valuation
  • Financial statements: Ulta Beauty, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001403568) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ULTA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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