What Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $497.52. Trading at its current price of $473.33, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of +5.1%. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +427.7% (fair value: $2,497.90), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -94.4% ($26.63). The spread between these extremes — +522.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ULTA?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ULTA. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ULTA's intrinsic value at $418.59, implying -11.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ULTA Rank in Retail-Retail Stores, NEC?
Among 18 Retail-Retail Stores, NEC stocks, ULTA ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places ULTA in the top tier.
Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s positioning within the Retail-Retail Stores, NEC segment means that e-commerce penetration rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is ULTA a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ULTA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Ulta Beauty, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ulta Beauty, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.6/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +522.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ULTA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ULTA's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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