Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, (SPWH) Fair Value 2026

SPWH · Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, (SPWH) trades at $1.21. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPWH
Price
$1.21
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Sentiment SOTP suggests +430.8% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.21)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Sentiment SOTP
Medium Conviction
$6.42 +430.8%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
$0.58 -52.3%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, (SPWH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.50, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $1.21. With an average implied return of +189.3% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +483.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Sentiment SOTP sees the most upside at +430.8% (fair value: $6.42), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -52.3% ($0.58). The spread between these extremes — +483.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SPWH?

2 of 13 models are currently active for SPWH. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPWH Rank in Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores?

Among 5 Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores stocks, SPWH ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

The Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores sector introduces analytical considerations specific to retail business businesses. For Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,, metrics like gross margin expansion provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is SPWH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPWH a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, scores 6.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +483.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPWH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPWH's 2 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: DKS · ASO · BNED · PEW

Frequently Asked Questions About Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,

What is Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, (SPWH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPWH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.21, 1 of 2 active models suggest SPWH may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,'s business model in Retail-Miscellaneous Shopping Goods Stores.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for SPWH?

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPWH?

CirclFi analyzes SPWH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SPWH a value trap in 2026?

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings,'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →