OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Fair Value 2026

ONEW · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) trades at $11.67, versus a $30.93 median fair value across its 7 active models — 165.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ONEW
Price
$11.67
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +405.8% upside with 73% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $30.93, 165.1% above the current price of $11.67. Estimates range from $1.05 to $59.02. ONEW scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ONEW’s +165.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy OneWater Marine Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ONEW?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.67)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.02 +405.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $30.93 +165.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.05 -91.0%
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What Is ONEW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $1.05 to $59.02

CirclFi's 7 active models place OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) between $1.05 and $59.02 per share, a spread of 187% of the median. The median of that range — $30.93 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ONEW, against a current price of $11.67.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · EPV
$1.05median $30.93$59.02
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.05
Most bullish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$59.02
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ONEW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ONEW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, OneWater Marine Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $30.93. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $11.67 (implied upside of +165.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, EPV sees the most upside at +405.8% (fair value: $59.02), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -91.0% ($1.05). The spread between these extremes — +496.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ONEW?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ONEW. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ONEW is $30.93 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ONEW Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, ONEW ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Specialty Retail space, OneWater Marine Inc. competes in an environment where brand equity index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ONEW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ONEW a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for OneWater Marine Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, OneWater Marine Inc. is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +496.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ONEW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ONEW's 7 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy OneWater Marine Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

SPWHSportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3EVGOEVgo, Inc.QOC 6.2WOOFPetco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.QOC 6.4GRWGGrowGeneration Corp.QOC 6.2HZOMarineMax, Inc.QOC 6.8BQBoqii Holding LimitedQOC 5.9NAASNaaS Technology Inc.QOC 5.2ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.7SBHSally Beauty Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: SPWH · EVGO · WOOF · GRWG · HZO · BQ · NAAS · ULTA · SBH · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ONEW?

7 companies across all industries closest to ONEW’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

AACGATA Creativity GlobalQOC 6.3TRCKTrack Group, Inc.QOC 6.3KULRKULR Technology Group, Inc.QOC 6.3MSNEmerson Radio Corp.QOC 6.3ALVOAlvotechQOC 6.3AMPGAmpliTech Group, Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AACG · TRCK · KULR · MSN · ALVO · AMPG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About OneWater Marine Inc.’s Valuation?

What is OneWater Marine Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW)'s intrinsic value at $30.93 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.05 to $59.02. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ONEW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.67, 5 of 7 active models suggest ONEW may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $30.93, 165.1% above the current price of $11.67 — a consensus view that ONEW is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits OneWater Marine Inc.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for ONEW?

OneWater Marine Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ONEW?

CirclFi analyzes ONEW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ONEW?

Of the 7 models currently active on ONEW, Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bullish at $59.02 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.05. CirclFi's published fair value for ONEW is the median of that range, $30.93, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 187% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ONEW a value trap in 2026?

OneWater Marine Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) has a median fair value of $30.93 — 165.1% above the current price of $11.67 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ONEW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ONEW valuation
  • Financial statements: OneWater Marine Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001772921) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ONEW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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