Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Fair Value 2026

CTRI · Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) trades at $25.89, approximately 717% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.17. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CTRI
Price
$25.89
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$3.17 -87.8%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$8.23 -68.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$8.64 -66.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$9.92 -61.7%

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What Is Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.16. Trading at its current price of $25.89, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -49.2%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $42.65 (+64.8%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $3.17 (-87.8%). This +152.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CTRI?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CTRI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CTRI's intrinsic value at $3.17, implying -87.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CTRI Rank in Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution?

Among 7 Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution stocks, CTRI ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CTRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CTRI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Centuri Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Centuri Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +152.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CTRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CTRI's 12 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Centuri Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

6 related Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Centuri Holdings, Inc.

What is Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.17. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CTRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.89, 2 of 12 active models suggest CTRI may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for CTRI?

Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CTRI?

CirclFi analyzes CTRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CTRI a value trap in 2026?

Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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