Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Fair Value 2026

CTRI · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) trades at $20.32, versus a $11.32 median fair value across its 8 active models — 44.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CTRI
Price
$20.32
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $11.32, 44.3% below the current price of $20.32. Estimates range from $3.05 to $21.42. CTRI scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CTRI’s -44.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -36.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Centuri Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CTRI?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.61 -52.7%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.28 -83.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.05 -85.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.78 -81.4%
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What Is CTRI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.05 to $21.42

CirclFi's 8 active models place Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) between $3.05 and $21.42 per share, a spread of 162% of the median. The median of that range — $11.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CTRI, against a current price of $20.32.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$3.05median $11.32$21.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$3.05
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$21.42
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CTRI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CTRI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $11.32. Trading at its current price of $20.32, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -44.3%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $21.42 (+5.4%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $3.05 (-85.0%). This +90.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About CTRI?

8 of 13 models are currently active for CTRI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CTRI is $11.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CTRI Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, CTRI ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Gas segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CTRI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CTRI a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Centuri Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Centuri Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CTRI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CTRI's 8 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Centuri Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc.QOC 6.3OPALOPAL Fuels Inc.QOC 6.0BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0ATOAtmos Energy CorporationQOC 7.9BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6OGSONE Gas, Inc.QOC 7.1

Read investment analysis: MDU · OPAL · BKH · NJR · NWN · UGI · ATO · BIPC · OGS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CTRI?

7 companies across all industries closest to CTRI’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

NSTSNSTS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2DXYNThe Dixie Group, Inc.QOC 6.2RGPResources Connection, Inc.QOC 6.2JYDJayud Global Logistics LimitedQOC 6.2EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2GRWGGrowGeneration Corp.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NSTS · DXYN · RGP · JYD · EQH · GRWG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Centuri Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI)'s intrinsic value at $11.32 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.05 to $21.42. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CTRI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.32, 1 of 8 active models suggest CTRI may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $11.32, 44.3% below the current price of $20.32 — a consensus view that CTRI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for CTRI?

Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CTRI?

CirclFi analyzes CTRI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CTRI?

Of the 8 models currently active on CTRI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $21.42 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $3.05. CirclFi's published fair value for CTRI is the median of that range, $11.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 162% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CTRI a value trap in 2026?

Centuri Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) has a median fair value of $11.32 — 44.3% below the current price of $20.32 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CTRI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CTRI valuation
  • Financial statements: Centuri Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001981599) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CTRI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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