Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Fair Value 2026

BKH · Electric Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Black Hills Corporation (BKH) trades at $75.83, approximately 54% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $166.06. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BKH
Price
$75.83
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +119.0% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($75.83)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$166.06 +119.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$5.98 -92.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$39.93 -47.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$44.89 -40.8%

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What Is Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Black Hills Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $50.02, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $75.83. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-34.0% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $166.06 (+119.0%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $5.98 (-92.1%). This +211.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Black Hills Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BKH?

13 of 13 models are currently active for BKH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BKH's intrinsic value at $166.06, implying +119.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BKH Rank in Electric Services?

Among 70 Electric Services stocks, BKH ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Electric Services Stocks →

Within the Electric Services space, Black Hills Corporation competes in an environment where capital investment plan often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BKH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BKH a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Black Hills Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Black Hills Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +211.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BKH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BKH's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Black Hills Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electric Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Electric Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CEPU · VST · NEE · HNRG · TAC

See all Electric Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Black Hills Corporation

What is Black Hills Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Black Hills Corporation (BKH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $166.06. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BKH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $75.83, 3 of 13 active models suggest BKH may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Black Hills Corporation's business model in Electric Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for BKH?

Black Hills Corporation's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BKH?

CirclFi analyzes BKH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BKH a value trap in 2026?

Black Hills Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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