Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Fair Value 2026

BKH · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Black Hills Corporation (BKH) trades at $72.80, versus a $43.10 median fair value across its 10 active models — 40.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BKH
Price
$72.80
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Black Hills Corporation (BKH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $43.10, 40.8% below the current price of $72.80. Estimates range from $14.87 to $98.59. BKH scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BKH’s -40.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -36.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Black Hills Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BKH?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($72.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.87 -79.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $43.90 -39.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.90 -49.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.03 -49.1%
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What Is BKH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $14.87 to $98.59

CirclFi's 10 active models place Black Hills Corporation (BKH) between $14.87 and $98.59 per share, a spread of 194% of the median. The median of that range — $43.10 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BKH, against a current price of $72.80.

Low · EPVHigh · PWERM
$14.87median $43.10$98.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$14.87
Most bullish modelPWERM$98.59
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BKH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BKH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Black Hills Corporation (BKH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Black Hills Corporation at its current price of $72.80. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $43.10 (-40.8% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $98.59 (+35.4%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $14.87 (-79.6%). This +115.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Black Hills Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BKH?

10 of 13 models are currently active for BKH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BKH is $43.10 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BKH Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, BKH ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Utilities - Regulated Gas space, Black Hills Corporation competes in an environment where debt-to-EBITDAX often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is BKH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BKH a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Black Hills Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Black Hills Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 6.9/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +115.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BKH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BKH's 10 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Black Hills Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc.QOC 6.3OGSONE Gas, Inc.QOC 7.1CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1OPALOPAL Fuels Inc.QOC 6.0NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4NINiSource Inc.QOC 7.8CPKChesapeake Utilities CorporationQOC 7.3UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0

Read investment analysis: NWN · MDU · OGS · CTRI · SWX · OPAL · NJR · NI · CPK · UGI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BKH?

7 companies across all industries closest to BKH’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

HBNCHorizon Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.9EXFYExpensify, Inc.QOC 6.9GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 6.9CLFDClearfield, Inc.QOC 6.9MQMarqeta, Inc.QOC 6.9KMPRKemper CorporationQOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HBNC · EXFY · GLAD · CLFD · MQ · KMPR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Black Hills Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Black Hills Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Black Hills Corporation (BKH)'s intrinsic value at $43.10 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $14.87 to $98.59. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BKH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $72.80, 3 of 10 active models suggest BKH may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $43.10, 40.8% below the current price of $72.80 — a consensus view that BKH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Black Hills Corporation's business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for BKH?

Black Hills Corporation's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BKH?

CirclFi analyzes BKH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BKH?

Of the 10 models currently active on BKH, PWERM is the most bullish at $98.59 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $14.87. CirclFi's published fair value for BKH is the median of that range, $43.10, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 194% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BKH a value trap in 2026?

Black Hills Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Black Hills Corporation (BKH) has a median fair value of $43.10 — 40.8% below the current price of $72.80 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BKH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BKH valuation
  • Financial statements: Black Hills Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001130464) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BKH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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