ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Fair Value 2026

OGS · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) trades at $79.47, versus a $47.32 median fair value across its 7 active models — 40.5% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OGS
Price
$79.47
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $47.32, 40.5% below the current price of $79.47. Estimates range from $33.70 to $100.28. OGS scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. OGS’s -40.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -36.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ONE Gas, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OGS?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($79.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $47.32 -40.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $42.65 -46.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $40.26 -49.3%
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What Is OGS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $33.70 to $100.28

CirclFi's 7 active models place ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) between $33.70 and $100.28 per share, a spread of 141% of the median. The median of that range — $47.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OGS, against a current price of $79.47.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$33.70median $47.32$100.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$33.70
Most bullish modelPWERM$100.28
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OGS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OGS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ONE Gas, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $47.32, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $79.47. With 6 out of 7 models flagging downside (-40.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $100.28 (+26.2%), versus Dynamic NAV at $33.70 (-57.6%). This +83.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About OGS?

7 of 13 models are currently active for OGS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OGS is $47.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OGS Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, OGS ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Utilities - Regulated Gas space, ONE Gas, Inc. competes in an environment where breakeven oil price often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is OGS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OGS a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for ONE Gas, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ONE Gas, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +83.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OGS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OGS's 7 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ONE Gas, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9CPKChesapeake Utilities CorporationQOC 7.3BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9RGCORGC Resources, Inc.QOC 7.3MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc.QOC 6.3CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2ATOAtmos Energy CorporationQOC 7.9BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0

Read investment analysis: SWX · NWN · CPK · BKH · RGCO · MDU · CTRI · ATO · BIPC · NJR · UGI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OGS?

7 companies across all industries closest to OGS’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

NVCRNovoCure LimitedQOC 7.1PORPortland General Electric CompanyQOC 7.1NLSTNetlist, Inc.QOC 7.1CYHCommunity Health Systems, Inc.QOC 7.1BRBSBlue Ridge Bankshares, Inc.QOC 7.1RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NVCR · POR · NLST · CYH · BRBS · RJET · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ONE Gas, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is ONE Gas, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)'s intrinsic value at $47.32 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $33.70 to $100.28. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OGS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $79.47, 1 of 7 active models suggest OGS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $47.32, 40.5% below the current price of $79.47 — a consensus view that OGS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ONE Gas, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for OGS?

ONE Gas, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OGS?

CirclFi analyzes OGS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OGS?

Of the 7 models currently active on OGS, PWERM is the most bullish at $100.28 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $33.70. CirclFi's published fair value for OGS is the median of that range, $47.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 141% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OGS a value trap in 2026?

ONE Gas, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS) has a median fair value of $47.32 — 40.5% below the current price of $79.47 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OGS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OGS valuation
  • Financial statements: ONE Gas, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001587732) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OGS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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