Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Fair Value 2026

ATO · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) trades at $167.22, versus a $89.80 median fair value across its 11 active models — 46.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $89.80.

Key Facts

Ticker
ATO
Price
$167.22
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $89.80, 46.3% below the current price of $167.22. Estimates range from $34.75 to $204.49. ATO scores 7.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ATO’s -46.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -37.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Atmos Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ATO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($167.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $89.80 -46.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.92 -79.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $84.64 -49.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $71.19 -57.4%
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What Is ATO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $34.75 to $204.49

CirclFi's 11 active models place Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) between $34.75 and $204.49 per share, a spread of 189% of the median. The median of that range — $89.80 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ATO, against a current price of $167.22.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$34.75median $89.80$204.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$34.75
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$204.49
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ATO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ATO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Atmos Energy Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $89.80. Trading at its current price of $167.22, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -46.3%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $204.49 (+22.3%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $34.75 (-79.2%). This +101.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Atmos Energy Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ATO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ATO. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ATO is $89.80 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $89.80 on its own, implying -46.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ATO Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, ATO ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Utilities - Regulated Gas sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For Atmos Energy Corporation, metrics like breakeven oil price provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ATO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ATO a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Atmos Energy Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Atmos Energy Corporation earns a quality score of 7.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +101.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ATO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ATO's 11 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Atmos Energy Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P.QOC 7.8NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4NINiSource Inc.QOC 7.8OPALOPAL Fuels Inc.QOC 6.0SRSpire Inc.QOC 7.7BIPCBrookfield Infrastructure CorporationQOC 7.6OGSONE Gas, Inc.QOC 7.1CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: UGI · SPH · NJR · NI · OPAL · SR · BIPC · OGS · CTRI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ATO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ATO’s Quality of Company score of 7.9/10.

LBRTLiberty Energy Inc.QOC 7.9DXDynex Capital, Inc.QOC 7.9BIIBBiogen Inc.QOC 7.9HEREHere Group LimitedQOC 7.9AUDCAudioCodes Ltd.QOC 7.9RPDRapid7, Inc.QOC 7.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LBRT · DX · BIIB · HERE · AUDC · RPD · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Atmos Energy Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Atmos Energy Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO)'s intrinsic value at $89.80 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $34.75 to $204.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $89.80 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ATO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $167.22, 1 of 11 active models suggest ATO may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $89.80, 46.3% below the current price of $167.22 — a consensus view that ATO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Atmos Energy Corporation's business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for ATO?

Atmos Energy Corporation's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ATO?

CirclFi analyzes ATO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ATO?

Of the 11 models currently active on ATO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $204.49 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $34.75. CirclFi's published fair value for ATO is the median of that range, $89.80, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 189% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ATO a value trap in 2026?

Atmos Energy Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) has a median fair value of $89.80 — 46.3% below the current price of $167.22 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ATO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ATO valuation
  • Financial statements: Atmos Energy Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000731802) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ATO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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