What Is National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Fuel Gas Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $58.64, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $80.91. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-27.5% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $132.45 (+63.7%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $3.02 (-96.3%). This +160.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about National Fuel Gas Company's intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About NFG?
13 of 13 models are currently active for NFG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NFG's intrinsic value at $11.78, implying -85.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does NFG Rank in Natural Gas Distribution?
Among 14 Natural Gas Distribution stocks, NFG ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places NFG in the top tier.
Within the Natural Gas Distribution space, National Fuel Gas Company competes in an environment where reserve replacement ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is NFG a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NFG a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for National Fuel Gas Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, National Fuel Gas Company's fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +160.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every NFG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across NFG's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
Buy with Gumroad