National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Fair Value 2026

NFG · Oil & Gas Integrated ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) trades at $82.87, versus a $59.06 median fair value across its 12 active models — 28.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $61.98.

Key Facts

Ticker
NFG
Price
$82.87
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $59.06, 28.7% below the current price of $82.87. Estimates range from $29.49 to $161.16. NFG scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NFG’s -28.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Integrated sector median is -18.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy National Fuel Gas Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NFG?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($82.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $61.98 -25.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.55 -55.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $56.14 -32.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $62.60 -24.5%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is NFG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $29.49 to $161.16

CirclFi's 12 active models place National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) between $29.49 and $161.16 per share, a spread of 223% of the median. The median of that range — $59.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NFG, against a current price of $82.87.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · ML-RIV
$29.49median $59.06$161.16
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$29.49
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$161.16
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NFG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NFG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Fuel Gas Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $59.06, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $82.87. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-28.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $161.16 (+94.5%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $29.49 (-64.4%). This +158.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about National Fuel Gas Company's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NFG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NFG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NFG is $59.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $61.98 on its own, implying -25.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NFG Rank in Oil & Gas Integrated?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, NFG ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places NFG in the top tier.

Within the Oil & Gas Integrated space, National Fuel Gas Company competes in an environment where reserve replacement ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is NFG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NFG a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for National Fuel Gas Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, National Fuel Gas Company's fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +158.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NFG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NFG's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy National Fuel Gas Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Integrated Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Integrated stocks with 13-model coverage

CVECenovus Energy Inc.QOC 8.5XOMExxonMobil Holdings CorporationQOC 8.3TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.QOC 8.6SHELShell plcQOC 8.1ECEcopetrol S.A.QOC 9.0BPBP p.l.c.QOC 7.4SUSuncor Energy Inc.QOC 7.3VIVKVivakor, Inc.QOC 5.5EQNREquinor ASAQOC 2.7

Read investment analysis: CVE · XOM · TGS · SHEL · EC · BP · SU · VIVK · EQNR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NFG?

7 companies across all industries closest to NFG’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

AUAngloGold Ashanti plcQOC 8.4EMREmerson Electric Co.QOC 8.4APAMArtisan Partners Asset Management Inc.QOC 8.4WBHCWilson Bank Holding CompanyQOC 8.4XPROExpro LtdQOC 8.4ALGNAlign Technology, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AU · EMR · APAM · WBHC · XPRO · ALGN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About National Fuel Gas Company’s Valuation?

What is National Fuel Gas Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)'s intrinsic value at $59.06 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $29.49 to $161.16. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $61.98 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NFG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $82.87, 2 of 12 active models suggest NFG may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $59.06, 28.7% below the current price of $82.87 — a consensus view that NFG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits National Fuel Gas Company's business model in Oil & Gas Integrated.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for NFG?

National Fuel Gas Company's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NFG?

CirclFi analyzes NFG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NFG?

Of the 12 models currently active on NFG, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $161.16 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $29.49. CirclFi's published fair value for NFG is the median of that range, $59.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 223% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NFG a value trap in 2026?

National Fuel Gas Company's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) has a median fair value of $59.06 — 28.7% below the current price of $82.87 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NFG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NFG valuation
  • Financial statements: National Fuel Gas Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000070145) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NFG as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on NFG.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

8 models hidden for NFG Unlock All 12 — $39/mo