What Is Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne's intrinsic value is estimated at $7.24, suggesting a +20.8% average upside from the current price of $6.00. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 5 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $13.15 (+119.4%), versus EPV at $2.31 (-61.5%). This +180.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About UGP?
13 of 13 models are currently active for UGP. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates UGP's intrinsic value at $9.46, implying +57.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does UGP Rank in Natural Gas Distribution?
Among 14 Natural Gas Distribution stocks, UGP ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places UGP in the top tier.
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne's positioning within the Natural Gas Distribution segment means that capital efficiency ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including capital discipline — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is UGP a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for UGP. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne scores 9.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +180.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every UGP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across UGP's 13 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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