Spire Inc. (SR) Fair Value 2026

SR · Natural Gas Distribution ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Spire Inc. (SR) trades at $82.44, approximately 95% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $42.38. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SR
Price
$82.44
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($82.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$42.38 -48.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$49.63 -39.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$67.20 -18.5%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$5.55 -93.3%

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What Is Spire Inc. (SR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Spire Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $51.45, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $82.44. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-37.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $106.70 (+29.4%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $1.75 (-97.9%). This +127.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Spire Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SR?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SR's intrinsic value at $42.38, implying -48.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SR Rank in Natural Gas Distribution?

Among 14 Natural Gas Distribution stocks, SR ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

As a energy sector, Spire Inc. operates in a sector where finding and development costs (F&D) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SR should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SR a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Spire Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Spire Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SR's 11 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Spire Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Natural Gas Distribution Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Natural Gas Distribution stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: UGP · NJR · EE · ATO · CQP

Frequently Asked Questions About Spire Inc.

What is Spire Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Spire Inc. (SR) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $42.38. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $82.44, 2 of 11 active models suggest SR may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Spire Inc.'s business model in Natural Gas Distribution.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for SR?

Spire Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SR?

CirclFi analyzes SR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SR a value trap in 2026?

Spire Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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