MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Fair Value 2026

MDU · Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) trades at $21.09. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDU
Price
$21.09
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $14.28, 32.3% below the current price of $21.09. Estimates range from $3.12 to $28.81. MDU scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MDU Resources Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $3.12 -85.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $12.55 -40.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $10.55 -50.0%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
 $5.75 -72.7%

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What Is MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $15.45. Trading at $21.09, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -26.7%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $28.81 (+36.6%), versus EPV at $3.12 (-85.2%). This +121.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MDU?

12 of 13 models are currently active for MDU. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDU Rank in Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels)?

Among 21 Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) stocks, MDU ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) segment means that organic revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MDU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDU a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for MDU Resources Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc. scores 5.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDU's 12 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MDU Resources Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels) stocks with 13-model coverage

USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, QOC 10.0VMCVulcan Materials Company (HoldiQOC 8.8HLHecla Mining CompanyQOC 8.8MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc.QOC 8.7LEUCentrus Energy Corp.QOC 8.6KNFKnife Riv Holding Co.QOC 8.6SNDSmart Sand, Inc.QOC 8.0TECKTeck Resources LtdQOC 7.8

Read investment analysis: USLM · VMC · HL · MLM · LEU

Frequently Asked Questions About MDU Resources Group, Inc.

What is MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.09, 5 of 12 active models suggest MDU may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $14.28, 32.3% below the current price of $21.09 — a consensus view that MDU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s business model in Mining & Quarrying of Nonmetallic Minerals (No Fuels).

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for MDU?

MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDU?

CirclFi analyzes MDU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MDU a value trap in 2026?

MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) has a median fair value of $14.28 — 32.3% below the current price of $21.09 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDU/ · Methodology

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