MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Fair Value 2026

MDU · Utilities - Regulated Gas ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) trades at $19.79, versus a $12.41 median fair value across its 11 active models — 37.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $31.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDU
Price
$19.79
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +59.6% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $12.41, 37.3% below the current price of $19.79. Estimates range from $5.30 to $31.59. MDU scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MDU’s -37.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Gas sector median is -36.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MDU Resources Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MDU?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.59 +59.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $14.14 -28.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $5.34 -73.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.32 -52.9%
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What Is MDU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.30 to $31.59

CirclFi's 11 active models place MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) between $5.30 and $31.59 per share, a spread of 212% of the median. The median of that range — $12.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MDU, against a current price of $19.79.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$5.30median $12.41$31.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$5.30
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$31.59
Model agreement3 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MDU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MDU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $12.41. Trading at $19.79, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -37.3%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $31.59 (+59.6%), versus Markov DDM at $5.30 (-73.2%). This +132.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MDU?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MDU. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MDU is $12.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $31.59 on its own, implying +59.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDU Rank in Utilities - Regulated Gas?

Among 16 Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, MDU ranks #14 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Gas segment means that debt-to-EBITDAX plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including basin-level economics — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MDU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MDU a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for MDU Resources Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc. scores 6.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDU's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MDU Resources Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Gas Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks with 13-model coverage

BKHBlack Hills CorporationQOC 6.9CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2NWNNorthwest Natural Holding CompanyQOC 6.9OPALOPAL Fuels Inc.QOC 6.0OGSONE Gas, Inc.QOC 7.1NJRNew Jersey Resources CorporationQOC 8.4UGIUGI CorporationQOC 8.0SRSpire Inc.QOC 7.7SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1

Read investment analysis: BKH · CTRI · NWN · OPAL · OGS · NJR · UGI · SR · SWX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MDU?

7 companies across all industries closest to MDU’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

LPTHLightPath Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3YOULYoulife Group Inc.QOC 6.3NNDMNano Dimension Ltd.QOC 6.3FLLFull House Resorts, Inc.QOC 6.3ELVGElvictor Group, Inc.QOC 6.3STRRStar Equity Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LPTH · YOUL · NNDM · FLL · ELVG · STRR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MDU Resources Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU)'s intrinsic value at $12.41 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.30 to $31.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $31.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.79, 3 of 11 active models suggest MDU may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $12.41, 37.3% below the current price of $19.79 — a consensus view that MDU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Gas.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for MDU?

MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDU?

CirclFi analyzes MDU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MDU?

Of the 11 models currently active on MDU, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $31.59 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $5.30. CirclFi's published fair value for MDU is the median of that range, $12.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 212% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MDU a value trap in 2026?

MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) has a median fair value of $12.41 — 37.3% below the current price of $19.79 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MDU valuation
  • Financial statements: MDU Resources Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000067716) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MDU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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