LightPath Technologies, Inc. (LPTH) Fair Value 2026

LPTH · Semiconductors & Related Devices ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, LightPath Technologies, Inc. (LPTH) trades at $11.52, approximately 1456% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $0.74. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LPTH
Price
$11.52
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $0.74 -93.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $1.49 -87.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $1.79 -84.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $0.43 -96.3%

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What Is LightPath Technologies, Inc. (LPTH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, LightPath Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.42. Trading at its current price of $11.52, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -70.3%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $14.98 (+30.1%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.15 (-98.7%). This +128.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about LightPath Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About LPTH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LPTH. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LPTH's intrinsic value at $0.74, implying -93.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LPTH Rank in Semiconductors & Related Devices?

Among 95 Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks, LPTH ranks #55 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks →

LightPath Technologies, Inc.'s positioning within the Semiconductors & Related Devices segment means that average selling price (ASP) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic supply diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is LPTH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LPTH a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for LightPath Technologies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, LightPath Technologies, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.6/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LPTH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LPTH's 12 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LightPath Technologies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Semiconductors & Related Devices Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks with 13-model coverage

AMATApplied Materials, Inc.QOC 10.0AVGOBroadcom Inc.QOC 10.0CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding QOC 10.0CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.QOC 10.0MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.QOC 10.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V.QOC 10.0NXTNextpower Inc.QOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AMAT · AVGO · CRDO · CRUS · MPWR

See all Semiconductors & Related Devices stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About LightPath Technologies, Inc.

What is LightPath Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, LightPath Technologies, Inc. (LPTH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $0.74. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LPTH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.52, 2 of 12 active models suggest LPTH may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LightPath Technologies, Inc.'s business model in Semiconductors & Related Devices.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for LPTH?

LightPath Technologies, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LPTH?

CirclFi analyzes LPTH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LPTH a value trap in 2026?

LightPath Technologies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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