TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) Fair Value 2026

TXO · Oil & Gas E&P ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) trades at $14.64, versus a $15.60 median fair value across its 8 active models — 6.6% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $35.74.

Key Facts

Ticker
TXO
Price
$14.64
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +144.1% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $15.60, within 6.6% of the current price of $14.64. Estimates range from $9.93 to $35.74. TXO scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TXO’s +6.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas E&P sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TXO Partners, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TXO?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $35.74 +144.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.65 +20.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $9.93 -32.2%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $10.24 -30.0%
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What Is TXO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $9.93 to $35.74

CirclFi's 8 active models place TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) between $9.93 and $35.74 per share, a spread of 165% of the median. The median of that range — $15.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TXO, against a current price of $14.64.

Low · First ChicagoHigh · Bayesian DCF
$9.93median $15.60$35.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFirst Chicago$9.93
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$35.74
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TXO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TXO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TXO Partners, L.P.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.60, suggesting a +6.6% median upside from the current price of $14.64. While 5 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $35.74 (+144.1%), versus First Chicago at $9.93 (-32.2%). This +176.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TXO?

8 of 13 models are currently active for TXO. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TXO is $15.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $35.74 on its own, implying +144.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TXO Rank in Oil & Gas E&P?

Among 90 Oil & Gas E&P stocks, TXO ranks #58 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Oil & Gas E&P Stocks →

Within the Oil & Gas E&P space, TXO Partners, L.P. competes in an environment where reserve life index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TXO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TXO a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for TXO Partners, L.P.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, TXO Partners, L.P.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +176.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TXO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TXO's 8 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TXO Partners, L.P. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas E&P Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas E&P stocks with 13-model coverage

WTIW&T Offshore, Inc.QOC 6.4SPNDSpindletop Oil & Gas Co.QOC 6.0EPSNEpsilon Energy Ltd.QOC 6.5BRNBarnwell Industries, Inc.QOC 5.9BKVBKV CorporationQOC 6.6EPEmpire Petroleum CorporationQOC 5.9PRTPermRock Royalty TrustQOC 4.9HPKHighPeak Energy, Inc.QOC 8.6PROPPrairie Operating Co.QOC 7.8TPLTexas Pacific Land CorporationQOC 9.1BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: WTI · SPND · EPSN · BRN · BKV · EP · PRT · HPK · PROP · TPL · BSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TXO?

7 companies across all industries closest to TXO’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

CCThe Chemours CompanyQOC 6.1LOCLLocal Bounti CorporationQOC 6.1BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.1AIRSAirSculpt Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.1ECHOEchoStar CorporationQOC 6.1LWLGLightwave Logic, Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CC · LOCL · BBAI · AIRS · ECHO · LWLG · NVDA

Where Does TXO Sit in CirclFi's Oil & Gas E&P Rankings?

TXO is ranked against every other Oil & Gas E&P stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Oil & Gas E&P stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About TXO Partners, L.P.’s Valuation?

What is TXO Partners, L.P.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO)'s intrinsic value at $15.60 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $9.93 to $35.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $35.74 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TXO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.64, 6 of 8 active models suggest TXO may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $15.60, within 6.6% of the current price of $14.64 — a consensus view that TXO is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TXO Partners, L.P.'s business model in Oil & Gas E&P.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for TXO?

TXO Partners, L.P.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TXO?

CirclFi analyzes TXO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TXO?

Of the 8 models currently active on TXO, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $35.74 per share, and First Chicago is the most bearish at $9.93. CirclFi's published fair value for TXO is the median of that range, $15.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 165% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TXO a value trap in 2026?

TXO Partners, L.P.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, TXO Partners, L.P. (TXO) has a median fair value of $15.60 — within 6.6% of the current price of $14.64 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TXO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TXO valuation
  • Financial statements: TXO Partners, L.P. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001559432) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TXO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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