Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) Fair Value 2026

ASO · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) trades at $42.63, versus a $70.75 median fair value across its 11 active models — 66.0% above the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $14.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
ASO
Price
$42.63
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +105.7% upside with 81% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $70.75, 66.0% above the current price of $42.63. Estimates range from $14.89 to $131.58. ASO scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ASO’s +66.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ASO?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($42.63)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.89 -65.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $87.69 +105.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $67.07 +57.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $46.68 +9.5%
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What Is ASO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $14.89 to $131.58

CirclFi's 11 active models place Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) between $14.89 and $131.58 per share, a spread of 165% of the median. The median of that range — $70.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ASO, against a current price of $42.63.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$14.89median $70.75$131.58
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$14.89
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$131.58
Model agreement10 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ASO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ASO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $42.63. Based on our 13-model framework, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $70.75 — representing +66.0% implied upside — with 10 out of 11 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $131.58 (+208.6%), versus Bayesian DCF at $14.89 (-65.1%). This +273.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ASO?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ASO. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ASO is $70.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $14.89 on its own, implying -65.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ASO Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, ASO ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places ASO in the top tier.

As a consumer-facing company, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. operates in a sector where same-store sales growth (comps) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ASO should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ASO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASO a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is rated at 8.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +273.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ASO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ASO's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

WINAWinmark CorporationQOC 8.6BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.QOC 8.5CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.QOC 8.6DKSDICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.QOC 8.4FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6BWMXBetterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V.QOC 8.4GMEGameStop Corp.QOC 7.5JBDIJBDI Holdings LimitedQOC 5.9AETNAeternum Health Inc.QOC 4.5WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: WINA · BBW · CASY · DKS · FIVE · BWMX · GME · JBDI · AETN · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ASO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ASO’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

CASHPathward Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationQOC 8.5DLBDolby Laboratories, Inc.QOC 8.5CVECenovus Energy Inc.QOC 8.5BDCBelden Inc.QOC 8.5OVLYOak Valley BancorpQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CASH · MPC · DLB · CVE · BDC · OVLY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)'s intrinsic value at $70.75 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.89 to $131.58. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $14.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ASO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $42.63, 10 of 11 active models suggest ASO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $70.75, 66.0% above the current price of $42.63 — a consensus view that ASO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for ASO?

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ASO?

CirclFi analyzes ASO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ASO?

Of the 11 models currently active on ASO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $131.58 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $14.89. CirclFi's published fair value for ASO is the median of that range, $70.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 165% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ASO a value trap in 2026?

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO) has a median fair value of $70.75 — 66.0% above the current price of $42.63 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ASO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ASO valuation
  • Financial statements: Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001817358) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ASO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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