Innospec Inc. (IOSP) Fair Value 2026

IOSP · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Innospec Inc. (IOSP) trades at $95.34, versus a $67.27 median fair value across its 12 active models — 29.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
IOSP
Price
$95.34
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +93.6% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Innospec Inc. (IOSP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Innospec Inc. (IOSP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $67.27, 29.4% below the current price of $95.34. Estimates range from $22.33 to $233.32. IOSP scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. IOSP’s -29.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Innospec Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give IOSP?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($95.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.40 -59.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.44 -37.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $69.74 -26.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $184.55 +93.6%
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What Is IOSP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $22.33 to $233.32

CirclFi's 12 active models place Innospec Inc. (IOSP) between $22.33 and $233.32 per share, a spread of 314% of the median. The median of that range — $67.27 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for IOSP, against a current price of $95.34.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$22.33median $67.27$233.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$22.33
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$233.32
Model agreement3 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for IOSP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on IOSP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Innospec Inc. (IOSP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Innospec Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $67.27, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $95.34. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-29.4% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $233.32 (+144.7%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $22.33 (-76.6%). This +221.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Innospec Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About IOSP?

12 of 13 models are currently active for IOSP. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for IOSP is $67.27 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.40 on its own, implying -59.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does IOSP Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, IOSP ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places IOSP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

As a industrial sector, Innospec Inc. operates in a sector where organic revenue growth is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating IOSP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is IOSP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns IOSP a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Innospec Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Innospec Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +221.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every IOSP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across IOSP's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Innospec Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

HWKNHawkins, Inc.QOC 8.8ECLEcolab Inc.QOC 8.7NEUNewMarket CorporationQOC 8.8PPGPPG Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7BCPCBalchem CorporationQOC 8.9AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.QOC 8.6FULH.B. Fuller CompanyQOC 7.4MNTKMontauk Renewables, Inc.QOC 6.5FEAM5E Advanced Materials, Inc.QOC 4.4ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: HWKN · ECL · NEU · PPG · BCPC · AXTA · FUL · MNTK · FEAM · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to IOSP?

7 companies across all industries closest to IOSP’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

MYRGMYR Group Inc.QOC 8.7EFSCEnterprise Financial Services CorpQOC 8.7ALHAlliance Laundry Holdings Inc.QOC 8.7DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.QOC 8.7LAURLaureate Education, Inc.QOC 8.8MTCHMatch Group, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MYRG · EFSC · ALH · DCI · LAUR · MTCH · NVDA

Where Does IOSP Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

IOSP is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Innospec Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Innospec Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Innospec Inc. (IOSP)'s intrinsic value at $67.27 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $22.33 to $233.32. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is IOSP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $95.34, 3 of 12 active models suggest IOSP may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $67.27, 29.4% below the current price of $95.34 — a consensus view that IOSP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Innospec Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for IOSP?

Innospec Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on IOSP?

CirclFi analyzes IOSP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on IOSP?

Of the 12 models currently active on IOSP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $233.32 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $22.33. CirclFi's published fair value for IOSP is the median of that range, $67.27, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 314% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is IOSP a value trap in 2026?

Innospec Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Innospec Inc. (IOSP) has a median fair value of $67.27 — 29.4% below the current price of $95.34 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/IOSP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this IOSP valuation
  • Financial statements: Innospec Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001054905) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for IOSP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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