Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) Fair Value 2026

AXTA · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) trades at $36.69, versus a $22.02 median fair value across its 11 active models — 40.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $14.61.

Key Facts

Ticker
AXTA
Price
$36.69
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $22.02, 40.0% below the current price of $36.69. Estimates range from $5.68 to $70.37. AXTA scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AXTA’s -40.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AXTA?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($36.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.61 -60.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.68 -84.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.57 -43.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.59 -65.7%
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What Is AXTA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $5.68 to $70.37

CirclFi's 11 active models place Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) between $5.68 and $70.37 per share, a spread of 294% of the median. The median of that range — $22.02 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AXTA, against a current price of $36.69.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.68median $22.02$70.37
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$70.37
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AXTA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AXTA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $22.02. Trading at $36.69, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -40.0%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $70.37 (+91.8%), versus EPV at $5.68 (-84.5%). This +176.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AXTA?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AXTA. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AXTA is $22.02 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $14.61 on its own, implying -60.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AXTA Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, AXTA ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places AXTA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that organic revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electrification tailwinds — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AXTA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AXTA a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +176.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AXTA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AXTA's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

PPGPPG Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7CBTCabot CorporationQOC 8.6ECLEcolab Inc.QOC 8.7ESIElement Solutions IncQOC 8.6IOSPInnospec Inc.QOC 8.7NTICNorthern Technologies International CorporationQOC 8.2MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.QOC 7.2ECVTEcovyst Inc.QOC 6.3HGASGlobal Gas CorporationQOC 4.2ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: PPG · CBT · ECL · ESI · IOSP · NTIC · MTX · ECVT · HGAS · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AXTA?

7 companies across all industries closest to AXTA’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

UANCVR Partners, LPQOC 8.6EZPWEZCORP, Inc.QOC 8.6CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 8.6YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6ULSUL Solutions Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UAN · EZPW · CHDN · URI · YETI · ULS · NVDA

Where Does AXTA Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

AXTA is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA)'s intrinsic value at $22.02 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.68 to $70.37. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $14.61 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AXTA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $36.69, 3 of 11 active models suggest AXTA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $22.02, 40.0% below the current price of $36.69 — a consensus view that AXTA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for AXTA?

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AXTA?

CirclFi analyzes AXTA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AXTA?

Of the 11 models currently active on AXTA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $70.37 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.68. CirclFi's published fair value for AXTA is the median of that range, $22.02, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 294% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AXTA a value trap in 2026?

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) has a median fair value of $22.02 — 40.0% below the current price of $36.69 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AXTA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AXTA valuation
  • Financial statements: Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001616862) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AXTA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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