Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Fair Value 2026

ECL · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ecolab Inc. (ECL) trades at $285.91, versus a $87.68 median fair value across its 11 active models — 69.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $84.16.

Key Facts

Ticker
ECL
Price
$285.91
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.7/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Ecolab Inc. (ECL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $87.68, 69.3% below the current price of $285.91. Estimates range from $50.24 to $348.82. ECL scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ECL’s -69.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -35.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ecolab Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ECL?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($285.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $84.16 -70.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $50.24 -82.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $96.79 -66.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $181.29 -36.6%
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What Is ECL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $50.24 to $348.82

CirclFi's 11 active models place Ecolab Inc. (ECL) between $50.24 and $348.82 per share, a spread of 341% of the median. The median of that range — $87.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ECL, against a current price of $285.91.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$50.24median $87.68$348.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$50.24
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$348.82
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ECL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ECL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ecolab Inc. (ECL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ecolab Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $87.68. Trading at its current price of $285.91, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -69.3%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $348.82 (+22.0%), versus EPV at $50.24 (-82.4%). This +104.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ECL?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ECL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ECL is $87.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $84.16 on its own, implying -70.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ECL Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 69 Specialty Chemicals stocks, ECL ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places ECL in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Ecolab Inc.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that organic revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electrification tailwinds — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ECL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ECL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Ecolab Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ecolab Inc. scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +104.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ECL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ECL's 11 active models, average confidence is 58%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ecolab Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

IOSPInnospec Inc.QOC 8.7PPGPPG Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7HWKNHawkins, Inc.QOC 8.8AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.QOC 8.6NEUNewMarket CorporationQOC 8.8CBTCabot CorporationQOC 8.6KOPKoppers Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4ASPNAspen Aerogels, Inc.QOC 6.4KBLBKraig Biocraft Laboratories, Inc.QOC 4.4ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: IOSP · PPG · HWKN · AXTA · NEU · CBT · KOP · ASPN · KBLB · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ECL?

7 companies across all industries closest to ECL’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

TDGTransDigm Group IncorporatedQOC 8.7CHCOCity Holding CompanyQOC 8.7EXEExpand Energy CorporationQOC 8.7PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc.QOC 8.7ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.QOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TDG · CHCO · EXE · PLNT · WMS · ULTA · NVDA

Where Does ECL Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

ECL is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ecolab Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ecolab Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ecolab Inc. (ECL)'s intrinsic value at $87.68 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $50.24 to $348.82. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $84.16 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ECL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $285.91, 1 of 11 active models suggest ECL may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $87.68, 69.3% below the current price of $285.91 — a consensus view that ECL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ecolab Inc.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for ECL?

Ecolab Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ECL?

CirclFi analyzes ECL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ECL?

Of the 11 models currently active on ECL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $348.82 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $50.24. CirclFi's published fair value for ECL is the median of that range, $87.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 341% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ECL a value trap in 2026?

Ecolab Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Ecolab Inc. (ECL) has a median fair value of $87.68 — 69.3% below the current price of $285.91 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ECL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ECL valuation
  • Financial statements: Ecolab Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000031462) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ECL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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