Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT) Fair Value 2026

ARDT · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT) trades at $10.99, versus a $20.08 median fair value across its 9 active models — 82.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ARDT
Price
$10.99
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +82.7% upside with 13% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $20.08, 82.7% above the current price of $10.99. Estimates range from $6.54 to $27.82. ARDT scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ARDT’s +82.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ardent Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ARDT?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.99)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.83 +71.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.08 +82.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.88 -10.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.54 -40.5%
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What Is ARDT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.54 to $27.82

CirclFi's 9 active models place Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT) between $6.54 and $27.82 per share, a spread of 106% of the median. The median of that range — $20.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ARDT, against a current price of $10.99.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$6.54median $20.08$27.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$6.54
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$27.82
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ARDT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ARDT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ardent Health, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $10.99. Based on our 13-model framework, Ardent Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $20.08 — representing +82.7% implied upside — with 7 out of 9 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $27.82 (+153.2%), versus ML-RIV at $6.54 (-40.5%). This +193.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ARDT?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ARDT. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ARDT is $20.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ARDT Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, ARDT ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places ARDT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Ardent Health, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ARDT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ARDT a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Ardent Health, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ardent Health, Inc. is rated at 8.2/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +193.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ARDT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ARDT's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ardent Health, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

CHEChemed CorporationQOC 8.2USPHU.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.QOC 7.9PNTGThe Pennant Group, Inc.QOC 8.3HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.9THCTenet Healthcare CorporationQOC 8.3MDPediatrix Medical Group, Inc.QOC 7.9CYHCommunity Health Systems, Inc.QOC 7.1AMSAmerican Shared Hospital ServicesQOC 5.9PARKPark Dental Partners, Inc.QOC 3.9ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: CHE · USPH · PNTG · HCA · THC · MD · CYH · AMS · PARK · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ARDT?

7 companies across all industries closest to ARDT’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

PSAPublic StorageQOC 8.2PRKPark National CorporationQOC 8.2WSBCWesBanco, Inc.QOC 8.2EPREPR PropertiesQOC 8.2AONAon plcQOC 8.2YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PSA · PRK · WSBC · EPR · AON · YUMC · NVDA

Where Does ARDT Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

ARDT is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ardent Health, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ardent Health, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT)'s intrinsic value at $20.08 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.54 to $27.82. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ARDT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.99, 7 of 9 active models suggest ARDT may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $20.08, 82.7% above the current price of $10.99 — a consensus view that ARDT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ardent Health, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for ARDT?

Ardent Health, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ARDT?

CirclFi analyzes ARDT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ARDT?

Of the 9 models currently active on ARDT, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $27.82 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $6.54. CirclFi's published fair value for ARDT is the median of that range, $20.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 106% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ARDT a value trap in 2026?

Ardent Health, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Ardent Health, Inc. (ARDT) has a median fair value of $20.08 — 82.7% above the current price of $10.99 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ARDT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ARDT valuation
  • Financial statements: Ardent Health, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001756655) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ARDT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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