COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) Fair Value 2026

CMPS · Pharmaceutical Preparations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) trades at $13.31, approximately 274% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $3.55. QOC: 2.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CMPS
Price
$13.31
Quality Score
2.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +5.6% upside with 33% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.3/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $7.06, 46.9% below the current price of $13.31. Estimates range from $1.21 to $16.10. CMPS scores 2.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy COMPASS Pathways Plc - American Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$3.55 -73.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$7.06 -46.9%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$12.62 -5.2%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
$14.06 +5.6%

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What Is COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on COMPASS Pathways Plc - American at its current price of $13.31. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $8.70 (-34.7% average return), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Sentiment SOTP sees the most upside at +21.0% (fair value: $16.10), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -90.9% ($1.21). The spread between these extremes — +111.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CMPS?

9 of 13 models are currently active for CMPS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CMPS's intrinsic value at $3.55, implying -73.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CMPS Rank in Pharmaceutical Preparations?

Among 431 Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks, CMPS ranks #403 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.3 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks →

Within the Pharmaceutical Preparations space, COMPASS Pathways Plc - American competes in an environment where patent cliff exposure often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CMPS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CMPS a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for COMPASS Pathways Plc - American. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, COMPASS Pathways Plc - American is rated at 2.3/10. This weak-tier score exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +111.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CMPS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CMPS's 9 active models, average confidence is 14%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy COMPASS Pathways Plc - American Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Pharmaceutical Preparations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AZN · CPRX · HRMY · NVO · SIGA

See all Pharmaceutical Preparations stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About COMPASS Pathways Plc - American

What is COMPASS Pathways Plc - American's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $3.55. The Quality of Company score is 2.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CMPS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.31, 3 of 9 active models suggest CMPS may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $7.06, 46.9% below the current price of $13.31 — a consensus view that CMPS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits COMPASS Pathways Plc - American's business model in Pharmaceutical Preparations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.3 mean for CMPS?

COMPASS Pathways Plc - American's QOC of 2.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CMPS?

CirclFi analyzes CMPS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CMPS a value trap in 2026?

COMPASS Pathways Plc - American's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, COMPASS Pathways Plc - American (CMPS) has a median fair value of $7.06 — 46.9% below the current price of $13.31 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CMPS/ · Methodology

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