Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) Fair Value 2026

HCSG · Services-Nursing & Personal Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) trades at $23.98, approximately 279% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.32. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HCSG
Price
$23.98
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: 13 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$6.32 -73.6%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$10.98 -54.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$11.86 -50.5%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$16.45 -31.4%

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What Is Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.27, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $23.98. With 12 out of 13 models flagging downside (-44.7% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $22.94 (-4.3%), versus Bayesian DCF at $6.32 (-73.6%). This +69.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HCSG?

13 of 13 models are currently active for HCSG. All 13 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates HCSG's intrinsic value at $6.32, implying -73.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HCSG Rank in Services-Nursing & Personal Care Facilities?

Among 3 Services-Nursing & Personal Care Facilities stocks, HCSG ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

Healthcare Services Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HCSG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HCSG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Healthcare Services Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +69.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HCSG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HCSG's 13 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Healthcare Services Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Nursing & Personal Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Services-Nursing & Personal Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: BKD · SNDA

Frequently Asked Questions About Healthcare Services Group, Inc.

What is Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.32. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HCSG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.98, 0 of 13 active models suggest HCSG may be undervalued, while 13 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s business model in Services-Nursing & Personal Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for HCSG?

Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HCSG?

CirclFi analyzes HCSG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HCSG a value trap in 2026?

Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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