Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) Fair Value 2026

HCSG · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) trades at $21.13, versus a $13.18 median fair value across its 11 active models — 37.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $10.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
HCSG
Price
$21.13
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $13.18, 37.6% below the current price of $21.13. Estimates range from $7.66 to $20.85. HCSG scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. HCSG’s -37.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -27.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Healthcare Services Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HCSG?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.67 -49.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.24 -51.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $13.18 -37.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.53 -59.6%
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What Is HCSG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $7.66 to $20.85

CirclFi's 11 active models place Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) between $7.66 and $20.85 per share, a spread of 100% of the median. The median of that range — $13.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HCSG, against a current price of $21.13.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · FTNN
$7.66median $13.18$20.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$7.66
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$20.85
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HCSG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HCSG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.18, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $21.13. With 9 out of 11 models flagging downside (-37.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $20.85 (-1.3%), versus Dynamic NAV at $7.66 (-63.7%). This +62.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HCSG?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HCSG. All 11 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for HCSG is $13.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $10.67 on its own, implying -49.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HCSG Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, HCSG ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Healthcare Services Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HCSG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HCSG a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Healthcare Services Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +62.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HCSG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HCSG's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Healthcare Services Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

PACSPACS Group, Inc.QOC 7.8BTMDbiote Corp.QOC 7.7MDPediatrix Medical Group, Inc.QOC 7.9GRDNGuardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.QOC 7.6HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.9DVADaVita Inc.QOC 7.5CCELCryo-Cell International, Inc.QOC 6.7ACHCAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc.QOC 5.6ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: PACS · BTMD · MD · GRDN · HCA · DVA · CCEL · ACHC · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HCSG?

7 companies across all industries closest to HCSG’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

HSAIHesai GroupQOC 7.7BWLPBW LPG LimitedQOC 7.7CTVACorteva, Inc.QOC 7.7KRGKite Realty Group TrustQOC 7.7CSRCenterspaceQOC 7.7FPHFive Point Holdings, LLCQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HSAI · BWLP · CTVA · KRG · CSR · FPH · NVDA

Where Does HCSG Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

HCSG is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Healthcare Services Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG)'s intrinsic value at $13.18 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $7.66 to $20.85. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $10.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HCSG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.13, 0 of 11 active models suggest HCSG may be undervalued, while 11 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $13.18, 37.6% below the current price of $21.13 — a consensus view that HCSG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for HCSG?

Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HCSG?

CirclFi analyzes HCSG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HCSG?

Of the 11 models currently active on HCSG, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $20.85 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $7.66. CirclFi's published fair value for HCSG is the median of that range, $13.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 100% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HCSG a value trap in 2026?

Healthcare Services Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG) has a median fair value of $13.18 — 37.6% below the current price of $21.13 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HCSG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HCSG valuation
  • Financial statements: Healthcare Services Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000731012) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HCSG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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