Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) Fair Value 2026

ACHC · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) trades at $30.22, versus a $34.41 median fair value across its 5 active models — 13.8% above the current price. QOC: 5.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACHC
Price
$30.22
Quality Score
5.6/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +2.6% upside with 30% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $34.41, 13.8% above the current price of $30.22. Estimates range from $20.72 to $40.19. ACHC scores 5.6/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ACHC’s +13.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACHC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($30.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.72 -31.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $31.02 +2.6%
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What Is ACHC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $20.72 to $40.19

CirclFi's 5 active models place Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) between $20.72 and $40.19 per share, a spread of 57% of the median. The median of that range — $34.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACHC, against a current price of $30.22.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$20.72median $34.41$40.19
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$20.72
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$40.19
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACHC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $34.41. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $30.22 (implied upside of +13.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 3 of 5 bullish models. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +33.0% (fair value: $40.19), while EPV is the most conservative at -31.4% ($20.72). The spread between these extremes — +64.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ACHC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ACHC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ACHC is $34.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACHC Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, ACHC ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.6 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ACHC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACHC a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. is rated at 5.6/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +64.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACHC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACHC's 5 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

STLNThe Oncology Institute, Inc.QOC 5.6WWWW International, Inc.QOC 5.5CDIXCardiff Lexington CorporationQOC 5.7ADIAAdia Med IncQOC 5.2BKDBrookdale Senior Living Inc.QOC 5.7SNDASonida Senior Living, Inc.QOC 5.2ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc.QOC 7.7AVAHAveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.QOC 6.7NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: STLN · WW · CDIX · ADIA · BKD · SNDA · ADUS · HCSG · AVAH · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACHC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACHC’s Quality of Company score of 5.6/10.

PLSMPulsenmore Ltd.QOC 5.6LIONLionsgate Studios Corp.QOC 5.6OPKOPKO Health, Inc.QOC 5.6TEADTeads Holding Co.QOC 5.6BOXLBoxlight CorporationQOC 5.6CTNTCheetah Net Supply Chain Service Inc.QOC 5.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PLSM · LION · OPK · TEAD · BOXL · CTNT · NVDA

Where Does ACHC Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

ACHC is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC)'s intrinsic value at $34.41 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $20.72 to $40.19. The Quality of Company score is 5.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACHC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $30.22, 4 of 5 active models suggest ACHC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $34.41, 13.8% above the current price of $30.22 — a consensus view that ACHC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.6 mean for ACHC?

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.'s QOC of 5.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACHC?

CirclFi analyzes ACHC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACHC?

Of the 5 models currently active on ACHC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $40.19 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $20.72. CirclFi's published fair value for ACHC is the median of that range, $34.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 57% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACHC a value trap in 2026?

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) has a median fair value of $34.41 — 13.8% above the current price of $30.22 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACHC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACHC valuation
  • Financial statements: Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001520697) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACHC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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