Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Fair Value 2026

BKD · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) trades at $11.72, versus a $5.51 median fair value across its 6 active models — 53.0% below the current price. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
BKD
Price
$11.72
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +164.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $5.51, 53.0% below the current price of $11.72. Estimates range from $2.58 to $31.00. BKD scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BKD’s -53.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BKD?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.96 -57.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $6.07 -48.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $31.00 +164.5%
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What Is BKD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $2.58 to $31.00

CirclFi's 6 active models place Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) between $2.58 and $31.00 per share, a spread of 516% of the median. The median of that range — $5.51 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BKD, against a current price of $11.72.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · First Chicago
$2.58median $5.51$31.00
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$2.58
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$31.00
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BKD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BKD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Brookdale Senior Living Inc. at its current price of $11.72. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $5.51 (-53.0% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $31.00 (+164.5%), versus RCMH-DCF at $2.58 (-78.0%). This +242.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BKD?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BKD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BKD is $5.51 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.96 on its own, implying -57.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BKD Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, BKD ranks #43 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Brookdale Senior Living Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BKD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BKD a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Brookdale Senior Living Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +242.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BKD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BKD's 6 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

EHSIElite Health Systems Inc.QOC 5.8CDIXCardiff Lexington CorporationQOC 5.7AMSAmerican Shared Hospital ServicesQOC 5.9STLNThe Oncology Institute, Inc.QOC 5.6GBCSSelectis Health, Inc.QOC 5.9ACHCAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc.QOC 5.6FCHSFirst Choice Healthcare Solutions, Inc.QOC 3.6HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc.QOC 7.9AMNAMN Healthcare Services, Inc.QOC 6.7ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: EHSI · CDIX · AMS · STLN · GBCS · ACHC · FCHS · HCA · AMN · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BKD?

7 companies across all industries closest to BKD’s Quality of Company score of 5.7/10.

VEEAVeea Inc.QOC 5.7TLSITriSalus Life Sciences, Inc.QOC 5.7MGXMetagenomi Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.7LITSLite Strategy, Inc.QOC 5.7SRLScully Royalty Ltd.QOC 5.7UWMCUWM Holdings CorporationQOC 5.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VEEA · TLSI · MGX · LITS · SRL · UWMC · NVDA

Where Does BKD Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

BKD is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Brookdale Senior Living Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD)'s intrinsic value at $5.51 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.58 to $31.00. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BKD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.72, 1 of 6 active models suggest BKD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $5.51, 53.0% below the current price of $11.72 — a consensus view that BKD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for BKD?

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BKD?

CirclFi analyzes BKD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BKD?

Of the 6 models currently active on BKD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $31.00 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $2.58. CirclFi's published fair value for BKD is the median of that range, $5.51, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 516% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BKD a value trap in 2026?

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) has a median fair value of $5.51 — 53.0% below the current price of $11.72 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BKD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BKD valuation
  • Financial statements: Brookdale Senior Living Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001332349) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BKD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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