What Is HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $239.44. Trading at its current price of $390.81, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -38.7%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $465.94 (+19.2%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $8.88 (-97.7%). This +117.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About HCA?
11 of 13 models are currently active for HCA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HCA's intrinsic value at $273.68, implying -30.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does HCA Rank in Services-General Medical & Surgical Hospitals, NEC?
Among 5 Services-General Medical & Surgical Hospitals, NEC stocks, HCA ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places HCA in the top tier.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is HCA a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HCA a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
11 of 13 models are active for HCA Healthcare, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HCA Healthcare, Inc. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +117.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every HCA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across HCA's 11 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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