Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Fair Value 2026

SGRY · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) trades at $13.69, versus a $14.52 median fair value across its 8 active models — 6.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $11.41.

Key Facts

Ticker
SGRY
Price
$13.69
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +460.4% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $14.52, within 6.1% of the current price of $13.69. Estimates range from $0.15 to $76.72. SGRY scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. SGRY’s +6.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Surgery Partners, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SGRY?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.41 -16.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.10 +24.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $76.72 +460.4%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $11.94 -12.8%
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What Is SGRY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.15 to $76.72

CirclFi's 8 active models place Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) between $0.15 and $76.72 per share, a spread of 527% of the median. The median of that range — $14.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SGRY, against a current price of $13.69.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$0.15median $14.52$76.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.15
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$76.72
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SGRY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SGRY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Surgery Partners, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.52, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $13.69. With a median implied return of +6.1% across a split 4–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +559.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +460.4% (fair value: $76.72), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -98.9% ($0.15). The spread between these extremes — +559.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SGRY?

8 of 13 models are currently active for SGRY. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SGRY is $14.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $11.41 on its own, implying -16.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SGRY Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, SGRY ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

Surgery Partners, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SGRY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SGRY a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Surgery Partners, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Surgery Partners, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +559.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SGRY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SGRY's 8 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Surgery Partners, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

SRTAStrata Critical Medical, Inc.QOC 6.5RHEPRegional Health Properties, Inc.QOC 6.2CCELCryo-Cell International, Inc.QOC 6.7AIRSAirSculpt Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.1AVAHAveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc.QOC 6.7MCTACharming Medical LimitedQOC 6.1ADIAAdia Med IncQOC 5.2EHCEncompass Health CorporationQOC 8.7GRDNGuardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.QOC 7.6ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: SRTA · RHEP · CCEL · AIRS · AVAH · MCTA · ADIA · EHC · GRDN · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SGRY?

7 companies across all industries closest to SGRY’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

HOFTHooker Furnishings CorporationQOC 6.4CARAvis Budget Group, Inc.QOC 6.4MGLDThe Marygold Companies, Inc.QOC 6.4FNWBFirst Northwest BancorpQOC 6.4LAWRRobot Consulting Co., Ltd.QOC 6.4KBKB Financial Group Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HOFT · CAR · MGLD · FNWB · LAWR · KB · NVDA

Where Does SGRY Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

SGRY is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Surgery Partners, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Surgery Partners, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)'s intrinsic value at $14.52 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.15 to $76.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $11.41 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SGRY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.69, 4 of 8 active models suggest SGRY may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $14.52, within 6.1% of the current price of $13.69 — a consensus view that SGRY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Surgery Partners, Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for SGRY?

Surgery Partners, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SGRY?

CirclFi analyzes SGRY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SGRY?

Of the 8 models currently active on SGRY, First Chicago is the most bullish at $76.72 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.15. CirclFi's published fair value for SGRY is the median of that range, $14.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 527% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SGRY a value trap in 2026?

Surgery Partners, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) has a median fair value of $14.52 — within 6.1% of the current price of $13.69 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SGRY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SGRY valuation
  • Financial statements: Surgery Partners, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001638833) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SGRY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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