Ventas, Inc. (VTR) Fair Value 2026

VTR · REIT - Healthcare Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Ventas, Inc. (VTR) trades at $92.89, versus a $19.49 median fair value across its 8 active models — 79.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VTR
Price
$92.89
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Ventas, Inc. (VTR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ventas, Inc. (VTR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $19.49, 79.0% below the current price of $92.89. Estimates range from $3.86 to $36.57. VTR scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VTR’s -79.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the REIT - Healthcare Facilities sector median is -45.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Ventas, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VTR?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($92.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.92 -80.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.06 -77.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.65 -88.5%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $3.86 -95.8%
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What Is VTR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.86 to $36.57

CirclFi's 8 active models place Ventas, Inc. (VTR) between $3.86 and $36.57 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $19.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VTR, against a current price of $92.89.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · PWERM
$3.86median $19.49$36.57
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.86
Most bullish modelPWERM$36.57
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VTR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VTR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Ventas, Inc. (VTR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Ventas, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $19.49. Trading at its current price of $92.89, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 8 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -79.0%. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $36.57 (-60.6%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.86 (-95.8%). This +35.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Ventas, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About VTR?

8 of 13 models are currently active for VTR. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for VTR is $19.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VTR Rank in REIT - Healthcare Facilities?

Among 17 REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks, VTR ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

The REIT - Healthcare Facilities sector introduces analytical considerations specific to pharmaceutical industry businesses. For Ventas, Inc., metrics like biosimilar competition timeline provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is VTR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VTR a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Ventas, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Ventas, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +35.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VTR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VTR's 8 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ventas, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar REIT - Healthcare Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related REIT - Healthcare Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

STRWStrawberry Fields REIT, Inc.QOC 7.0HRHealthcare Realty Trust IncorporatedQOC 6.4NHINational Health Investors, Inc.QOC 7.2MPTMedical Properties Trust, Inc.QOC 6.0CHCTCommunity Healthcare Trust IncorporatedQOC 7.2XRNChiron Real Estate Inc.QOC 5.9NHPNational Healthcare Properties, Inc.QOC 5.5AHRAmerican Healthcare REIT, Inc.QOC 8.2SBRASabra Health Care REIT, Inc.QOC 7.4CTRECareTrust REIT, Inc.QOC 8.6OHIOmega Healthcare Investors, Inc.QOC 8.5

Read investment analysis: STRW · HR · NHI · MPT · CHCT · XRN · NHP · AHR · SBRA · CTRE · OHI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VTR?

7 companies across all industries closest to VTR’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

GTLLGlobal Technologies, Ltd.QOC 6.4TENTsakos Energy Navigation LimitedQOC 6.4TTGTTechTarget, Inc.QOC 6.4PFXPhenixFIN CorporationQOC 6.4UTSIUTStarcom Holdings Corp.QOC 6.4DMRCDigimarc CorporationQOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GTLL · TEN · TTGT · PFX · UTSI · DMRC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Ventas, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Ventas, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Ventas, Inc. (VTR)'s intrinsic value at $19.49 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.86 to $36.57. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VTR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $92.89, 0 of 8 active models suggest VTR may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $19.49, 79.0% below the current price of $92.89 — a consensus view that VTR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ventas, Inc.'s business model in REIT - Healthcare Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for VTR?

Ventas, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VTR?

CirclFi analyzes VTR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VTR?

Of the 8 models currently active on VTR, PWERM is the most bullish at $36.57 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.86. CirclFi's published fair value for VTR is the median of that range, $19.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VTR a value trap in 2026?

Ventas, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Ventas, Inc. (VTR) has a median fair value of $19.49 — 79.0% below the current price of $92.89 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VTR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VTR valuation
  • Financial statements: Ventas, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000740260) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VTR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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