ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Fair Value 2026

TDUP · Internet Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) trades at $2.72, versus a $0.13 median fair value across its 2 active models — 95.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 2/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.13.

Key Facts

Ticker
TDUP
Price
$2.72
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $0.13, 95.3% below the current price of $2.72. Estimates range from $0.12 to $0.13. TDUP scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TDUP’s -95.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Internet Retail sector median is -29.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ThredUp Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TDUP?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.13 -95.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.12 -95.6%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ThredUp Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.13, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $2.72. With 2 out of 2 models flagging downside (-95.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About TDUP?

2 of 13 models are currently active for TDUP. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for TDUP is $0.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.13 on its own, implying -95.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TDUP Rank in Internet Retail?

Among 43 Internet Retail stocks, TDUP ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

As a digital enterprise, ThredUp Inc. operates in a sector where annual recurring revenue (ARR) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TDUP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TDUP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TDUP a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for ThredUp Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ThredUp Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+0.5% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TDUP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TDUP's 2 active models, average confidence is 61%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ThredUp Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

REREATRenew Inc.QOC 6.6NHTCNatural Health Trends Corp.QOC 6.3HEPSD-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S.QOC 6.7ZKHZKH Group LimitedQOC 6.1BZUNBaozun Inc.QOC 7.0MOGUMOGU Inc.QOC 6.0NXHNeighborhood Intelligence, Inc.QOC 5.8OCGOriental Culture Holding LTDQOC 1.6DASHDoorDash, Inc.QOC 8.3PDDPDD Holdings Inc.QOC 9.2CHWYChewy, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: RERE · NHTC · HEPS · ZKH · BZUN · MOGU · NXH · OCG · DASH · PDD · CHWY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TDUP?

7 companies across all industries closest to TDUP’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

BRIDBridgford Foods CorporationQOC 6.4BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp.QOC 6.4UTZUtz Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4TEMTempus AI, Inc.QOC 6.4DMRCDigimarc CorporationQOC 6.4MGNMegan Holdings LimitedQOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BRID · BIOX · UTZ · TEM · DMRC · MGN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ThredUp Inc.’s Valuation?

What is ThredUp Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ThredUp Inc. (TDUP)'s intrinsic value at $0.13 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.12 to $0.13. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.13 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TDUP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.72, 0 of 2 active models suggest TDUP may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $0.13, 95.3% below the current price of $2.72 — a consensus view that TDUP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ThredUp Inc.'s business model in Internet Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for TDUP?

ThredUp Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TDUP?

CirclFi analyzes TDUP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TDUP a value trap in 2026?

ThredUp Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) has a median fair value of $0.13 — 95.3% below the current price of $2.72 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TDUP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TDUP valuation
  • Financial statements: ThredUp Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001484778) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TDUP as of ; valuations recomputed .